I think it would be fairer to compare your $1000/thousands_of_life_years figure against other equally speculative back-of-the-envelope calculations, instead of against AMF. Generally more speculative causes (such as xrisk reduction) can produce better expected returns, but with a greater chance that we’re somehow fooling ourselves or ignoring an unknown unknown.
Also, where did the $1000 estimate come from? Does it include the probability of success of cryonics and the probability that we survive for thousands of subjective years without destroying ourselves?
I think it would be fairer to compare your $1000/thousands_of_life_years figure against other equally speculative back-of-the-envelope calculations, instead of against AMF. Generally more speculative causes (such as xrisk reduction) can produce better expected returns, but with a greater chance that we’re somehow fooling ourselves or ignoring an unknown unknown.
Also, where did the $1000 estimate come from? Does it include the probability of success of cryonics and the probability that we survive for thousands of subjective years without destroying ourselves?
It was an estimate from someone at an optimial philanthropy meetup. I don’t think it included any improbability discounts.