(Epistemic status: third hand / rumor.) I heard that this is spoken about openly in Amodei’s ~weekly all-hands, and this has been the case for a ~year.
Just listened to the talk and I’m confused about what people think Dario said. The only mention I noticed of RSI at the end was when the moderator said: “Last question. What will have changed in a year.”
Dario said, paraphrasing, that the most important thing to watch this year is AIs building AIs, which could lead to wonders or a great emergency in front of us if it turns out that works and causes a meaningful speedup.
Is that what you’re talking about? I’m pretty sure I agree that this is one of the most important things to pay attention to in the next year.
Over the interview, it’s clear that Dario’s stated timelines are significantly more confidently short than Demis’s; e.g. see here https://youtu.be/02YLwsCKUww?t=1030
it’s clear that Dario’s stated reason for NOT slowing down HIS research, seemingly refering to the short-timelines research, i.e. the RSI research, is something about China.
Did you mean to ask me, rather than someone else in this thread? (I had a quick look at the new essay but haven’t read it in full yet; what I did see didn’t seem very surprising, so I don’t really feel better or worse at this stage. Happy to say more once I’ve read it properly, but I think you might have meant to ask someone else, as I wasn’t really taking a position in this thread—just pointing out a relevant section of the talk that I thought you might have missed.)
I’ve seen this message, but per our confidentiality policy, no comment. (and don’t take the below as indicative either way, glomar response etc)
I will note though that Dario did not actually talk about recursive self-improvement, nor about superintelligence; commentary on Lesswrong often assumes a shared ontology that just doesn’t exist.
I also continue to endorse the confidentiality policy, and per my red lines I still trust Anthropic’s leadership and think the company is on net good for the world.
Can you, or have you elsewhere, elaborate on the presumed shared ontology that doesn’t exist? I think I’d expect you to have a pretty good sense of the delta, and it could be important for learning how to talk to each other more effectively.
@Zac Hatfield-Dodds @evhub @Dave Orr @Ethan Perez @Carson Denison @Drake Thomas @gasteigerjo @Aram Ebtekar Can you comment on this? Is that what they are planning to work on? Were you aware of this? Do you think that’s a good thing to do?
(Epistemic status: third hand / rumor.) I heard that this is spoken about openly in Amodei’s ~weekly all-hands, and this has been the case for a ~year.
Just listened to the talk and I’m confused about what people think Dario said. The only mention I noticed of RSI at the end was when the moderator said: “Last question. What will have changed in a year.”
Dario said, paraphrasing, that the most important thing to watch this year is AIs building AIs, which could lead to wonders or a great emergency in front of us if it turns out that works and causes a meaningful speedup.
Is that what you’re talking about? I’m pretty sure I agree that this is one of the most important things to pay attention to in the next year.
Would you please listen for 2 minutes to the beginning of the interview around the 1 minute mark, here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02YLwsCKUww&t=59s
Over the interview, it’s clear that Dario’s stated timelines are significantly more confidently short than Demis’s; e.g. see here https://youtu.be/02YLwsCKUww?t=1030
Then, if you listen here for a couple minutes:
https://youtu.be/02YLwsCKUww?t=1326
it’s clear that Dario’s stated reason for NOT slowing down HIS research, seemingly refering to the short-timelines research, i.e. the RSI research, is something about China.
There’s a relevant section near the beginning, when the moderator asks him about his timeline: https://youtu.be/9Zz2KrBDXUo?si=9kHfNC_ec-2yTk8e&t=61
Does Dario’s new essay make you feel better, or worse?
Did you mean to ask me, rather than someone else in this thread? (I had a quick look at the new essay but haven’t read it in full yet; what I did see didn’t seem very surprising, so I don’t really feel better or worse at this stage. Happy to say more once I’ve read it properly, but I think you might have meant to ask someone else, as I wasn’t really taking a position in this thread—just pointing out a relevant section of the talk that I thought you might have missed.)
I’ve seen this message, but per our confidentiality policy, no comment. (and don’t take the below as indicative either way, glomar response etc)
I will note though that Dario did not actually talk about recursive self-improvement, nor about superintelligence; commentary on Lesswrong often assumes a shared ontology that just doesn’t exist.
I also continue to endorse the confidentiality policy, and per my red lines I still trust Anthropic’s leadership and think the company is on net good for the world.
Can you, or have you elsewhere, elaborate on the presumed shared ontology that doesn’t exist? I think I’d expect you to have a pretty good sense of the delta, and it could be important for learning how to talk to each other more effectively.