If AI boosts productivity by a large factor in the roles that it can automate within a given sector, that would cause a significant increase in the demand for human labor in the remaining bottlenecks. Total employment in the sector could even increase, right up until AI passes a capability threshold with respect to a given bottleneck and completely wipes out those jobs all at once.
Agree, this is plausible. But we could see businesses predicting the future and not hiring for new jobs because it takes a while to train, and there are costs to firing.
If AI boosts productivity by a large factor in the roles that it can automate within a given sector, that would cause a significant increase in the demand for human labor in the remaining bottlenecks. Total employment in the sector could even increase, right up until AI passes a capability threshold with respect to a given bottleneck and completely wipes out those jobs all at once.
Agree, this is plausible. But we could see businesses predicting the future and not hiring for new jobs because it takes a while to train, and there are costs to firing.