Banish talk of “thresholds of belief”. Probabilities go up or down, but there is no magic threshold beyond which they change qualitatively into “knowledge”
There might be a normative rule to that effect , but probabilities in your brain can’t change by infinitesimal increments. Bayes as applied by cognitively limited agents like humans has to have some granularity.
There might be a normative rule to that effect , but probabilities in your brain can’t change by infinitesimal increments. Bayes as applied by cognitively limited agents like humans has to have some granularity.