Expected utility doesn’t hold because you can use the money to give yourself more than a + 1 in a million chance of survival to the singularity, for example by buying 9000 lottery tickets and funding SIAI if you win.
That really depends a lot on the expected utility. Moreover, argument 2 above (getting people to think about long-term prospects) has little connection to the value of p.
none of those hold for p = 1 in a million.
Expected utility doesn’t hold because you can use the money to give yourself more than a + 1 in a million chance of survival to the singularity, for example by buying 9000 lottery tickets and funding SIAI if you win.
1 in a million is really small.
That really depends a lot on the expected utility. Moreover, argument 2 above (getting people to think about long-term prospects) has little connection to the value of p.
The point about thinking more about the future with cryo is that you expect to be there.
p=1 in 1 million means you don’t expect to be there.
Even a small chance that you will be there helps put people in the mind-set to think long-term.