I’ve tried Metaculus private questions, Roam, and Google Sheets, and unfortunately find Google Sheets the least tedious. Metaculus questions are best when you revise predictions dozens of times, and Roam can’t do much automatically yet.
Columns in the spreadsheet:
Date: date I make the prediction
Personal?: whether the prediction is about my own actions
Prediction: e.g. “I have 1000 LW karma by 2021”
Pro, Con: main reasons for/against, in a few words
%: predicted probability e.g .60
Outcome: 0⁄1 (haven’t tried numerical data yet nor do I think it’ll be worthwhile)
Hindsight: the probability I would have given in hindsight
I’m working on calibration, but also trying to identify patterns in mispredictions of myself that I can gain self-knowledge from, hence the extra information. It gets slow to load around 200 entries, but entering predictions using Google Forms could mitigate this (though I haven’t tried it). The main advantage of a spreadsheet is the ability to customize graphs with relatively little effort.
Heh, I do often find spreadsheets to work the best, even if they’re a bit janky/ugly, because I can customize them to be exactly what I want.
But it actually looks like PredictionBook may be superior to a spreadsheet (for me at least), by virtue of being pretty simple to enter data, as well as automatically composing your “correct predictions” graph, and sending you reminder emails when the prediction is due to resolve.
I’ve tried Metaculus private questions, Roam, and Google Sheets, and unfortunately find Google Sheets the least tedious. Metaculus questions are best when you revise predictions dozens of times, and Roam can’t do much automatically yet.
Columns in the spreadsheet:
Date: date I make the prediction
Personal?: whether the prediction is about my own actions
Prediction: e.g. “I have 1000 LW karma by 2021”
Pro, Con: main reasons for/against, in a few words
%: predicted probability e.g .60
Outcome: 0⁄1 (haven’t tried numerical data yet nor do I think it’ll be worthwhile)
Hindsight: the probability I would have given in hindsight
I’m working on calibration, but also trying to identify patterns in mispredictions of myself that I can gain self-knowledge from, hence the extra information. It gets slow to load around 200 entries, but entering predictions using Google Forms could mitigate this (though I haven’t tried it). The main advantage of a spreadsheet is the ability to customize graphs with relatively little effort.
Heh, I do often find spreadsheets to work the best, even if they’re a bit janky/ugly, because I can customize them to be exactly what I want.
But it actually looks like PredictionBook may be superior to a spreadsheet (for me at least), by virtue of being pretty simple to enter data, as well as automatically composing your “correct predictions” graph, and sending you reminder emails when the prediction is due to resolve.