Cthulhu always swims left isn’t an observation that on every single issue society will settle on the left’s preferences, but that the general trend is leftward movement. If you interpreted it as that, the fall of the Soviet Union and the move away from planned economies should be a far more important counterexample.
Before continue I should define how I’m using left and right. I think them real in the sense they are the coalitions that tend to form in under current socioeconomic conditions, when due to the adversarial nature of politics, you compress very complicated preferences into as few dimensions (one) as possible. Principle component analysis makes for a nice metaphor on this.
Back to Cthulhu. As someone who’s preferences can be described as right wing I would be quite happy with returning to 1950s levels of state intervention, welfare and relative economic equality in exchange for that period’s social capital and cultural norms. Controlling for technological progress obviously. Some on the far right of mainstream conservatives might accept the same trade. This isn’t to say I would find it a perfect fit, not by long shot, but it would be a net improvement. I believe most Western far right people would accept this trade, most Western far left people would not accept this trade. And in America at least, centrists would be uncomfortable both with that level of state intervention and the social norms of the 1950s.
Now that we have this claim about revealed preferences, let’s invoke a very simple heuristic. Imagine you have two players playing a zero sum game of politics, they are offered to move the game to the position it had 50 moves ago. One player accepts, the other refuses. Ceteris paribus which one do you think is winning?
The “who would prefer to return 50 years back?” argument is interesting, but I think the meaning of “winning” has to be defined more precisely. Imagine that 50 years ago I was (by whatever metric) ten times as powerful as you, but today I am only three times as powerful than you. Would you describe this situation as your victory?
In some sense, yes, it is an improvement of your relative power. In other sense, no, I am still more powerful. You may be hopeful about the future, because the first derivative seems to work for you. On the other hand, maybe the second derivative works for me; and generally, predicting the future is a tricky business.
But it is interesting to think about how the time dimension is related to politics. I was thinking that maybe it’s the other way round; that “the right” is the side which self-identifies with the past, so in some sense it is losing by definition—if your goal is to be “more like yesterday than like today”, then tautologically today is worse according to this metric than the yesterday was. And there is a strong element of returning to the past in some right-wing movements.
But then I realized that some left-wing movements have this component too. I remember communists emphasising that millenia ago humans lived in perfectly egalitarian hunter-gatherer societies (before the surplus value was taken by the evil slavers / feudal lords / capitalists), so when the true communism comes, this ancient harmony will be restored. Similarly, some feminists (maybe just a small minority of them, I don’t know) have stories about how exactly the ancient matriarchal societies were organized, so overthrowing patriarchy would kinda restore this ancient order.
At this moment my working hypothesis is that “returning to the perfect past” is simply an universal human bias, and the main political difference is where exactly is your Golden Age located. Then it would seem that the right wing puts the Golden Age in the more recent past, while the left wing prefers prehistorical societies.
That makes it pretty likely that in its heart, the left is about returning towards our hunter-gatherer instincts and abandoning as much as possible of our disappointing civilization, while the right is about insisting on some specific adaptations to scarcity. Something like what Yvain said, with the connotational objection that the category of danger does not include only zombies, but also criminals or dysfunctional bureaucracies, which are everyday reality for some people. Generally, as we improve economically, we can afford to remove some of the adaptations to scarcity; the trade-offs that are no longer necessary. But sometimes while doing so we fuck up things horribly and the scarcity returns; often in a way that university professors don’t notice, simply because it does not happen to them.
Imagine that 50 years ago I was (by whatever metric) ten times as powerful as you, but today I am only three times as powerful than you. Would you describe this situation as your victory?
I would describe it as me playing very well for the past 50 years and the game going my way.
Cthulhu always swims left isn’t an observation that on every single issue society will settle on the left’s preferences, but that the general trend is leftward
Dropping the “always” might lead to less confusion on this point.
Why does politics compress issues into a single linear dimension?
I suppose it makes sense in a two party system, but why do parliamentary systems with several small parties mainly have parties on the extremes, rather than mainly having parties with orthogonal preferences that could ally with either major party? In principle, a Green party ought not to care much about the left-right access, but in practice it cares very much.
Why does politics compress issues into a single linear dimension?
I don’t know, it might be an artifact of representative systems in the West where the all important thing is getting the majority vote. “Left” vs. “Right” being a strong signal of who your allies tend to be seems to work pretty well descriptively for most people’s political identities and preferences.
A slight nitpick: I wouldn’t describe politics as anything remotely near zero-sum. The actions of the players of a country’s game of politics have very far-reaching effects on the citizens and residents of that country, and in some cases of the residents of the entire world.
The actions of the players definitely do affect the world at large in ways outside the scope of the game, which makes it about as far from zero-sum as it could possibly be. I’m pretty sure that this changes the outcome of your thought experiment dramatically.
Cthulhu always swims left isn’t an observation that on every single issue society will settle on the left’s preferences, but that the general trend is leftward movement. If you interpreted it as that, the fall of the Soviet Union and the move away from planned economies should be a far more important counterexample.
Before continue I should define how I’m using left and right. I think them real in the sense they are the coalitions that tend to form in under current socioeconomic conditions, when due to the adversarial nature of politics, you compress very complicated preferences into as few dimensions (one) as possible. Principle component analysis makes for a nice metaphor on this.
Back to Cthulhu. As someone who’s preferences can be described as right wing I would be quite happy with returning to 1950s levels of state intervention, welfare and relative economic equality in exchange for that period’s social capital and cultural norms. Controlling for technological progress obviously. Some on the far right of mainstream conservatives might accept the same trade. This isn’t to say I would find it a perfect fit, not by long shot, but it would be a net improvement. I believe most Western far right people would accept this trade, most Western far left people would not accept this trade. And in America at least, centrists would be uncomfortable both with that level of state intervention and the social norms of the 1950s.
Now that we have this claim about revealed preferences, let’s invoke a very simple heuristic. Imagine you have two players playing a zero sum game of politics, they are offered to move the game to the position it had 50 moves ago. One player accepts, the other refuses. Ceteris paribus which one do you think is winning?
The “who would prefer to return 50 years back?” argument is interesting, but I think the meaning of “winning” has to be defined more precisely. Imagine that 50 years ago I was (by whatever metric) ten times as powerful as you, but today I am only three times as powerful than you. Would you describe this situation as your victory?
In some sense, yes, it is an improvement of your relative power. In other sense, no, I am still more powerful. You may be hopeful about the future, because the first derivative seems to work for you. On the other hand, maybe the second derivative works for me; and generally, predicting the future is a tricky business.
But it is interesting to think about how the time dimension is related to politics. I was thinking that maybe it’s the other way round; that “the right” is the side which self-identifies with the past, so in some sense it is losing by definition—if your goal is to be “more like yesterday than like today”, then tautologically today is worse according to this metric than the yesterday was. And there is a strong element of returning to the past in some right-wing movements.
But then I realized that some left-wing movements have this component too. I remember communists emphasising that millenia ago humans lived in perfectly egalitarian hunter-gatherer societies (before the surplus value was taken by the evil slavers / feudal lords / capitalists), so when the true communism comes, this ancient harmony will be restored. Similarly, some feminists (maybe just a small minority of them, I don’t know) have stories about how exactly the ancient matriarchal societies were organized, so overthrowing patriarchy would kinda restore this ancient order.
At this moment my working hypothesis is that “returning to the perfect past” is simply an universal human bias, and the main political difference is where exactly is your Golden Age located. Then it would seem that the right wing puts the Golden Age in the more recent past, while the left wing prefers prehistorical societies.
That makes it pretty likely that in its heart, the left is about returning towards our hunter-gatherer instincts and abandoning as much as possible of our disappointing civilization, while the right is about insisting on some specific adaptations to scarcity. Something like what Yvain said, with the connotational objection that the category of danger does not include only zombies, but also criminals or dysfunctional bureaucracies, which are everyday reality for some people. Generally, as we improve economically, we can afford to remove some of the adaptations to scarcity; the trade-offs that are no longer necessary. But sometimes while doing so we fuck up things horribly and the scarcity returns; often in a way that university professors don’t notice, simply because it does not happen to them.
I would describe it as me playing very well for the past 50 years and the game going my way.
Dropping the “always” might lead to less confusion on this point.
I only used “Cthulhu always swims left” because that is how army1987 termed it. Moldbug says “Cthulhu may swim slowly. But he only swims left.”
That formulation has the same problem. Like “always swims left”, “only swims left” suggests that every observed movement is leftwards.
Unless there is an implicit distinction between purposeful movement, analogous to swiming, and some drift due to chance.
I doubt most people who read the phrase “Cthulhu only swims left” would pick up on that unspoken distinction, though I could be wrong.
(I’ve corrected it now.)
Why does politics compress issues into a single linear dimension?
I suppose it makes sense in a two party system, but why do parliamentary systems with several small parties mainly have parties on the extremes, rather than mainly having parties with orthogonal preferences that could ally with either major party? In principle, a Green party ought not to care much about the left-right access, but in practice it cares very much.
I don’t know, it might be an artifact of representative systems in the West where the all important thing is getting the majority vote. “Left” vs. “Right” being a strong signal of who your allies tend to be seems to work pretty well descriptively for most people’s political identities and preferences.
A slight nitpick: I wouldn’t describe politics as anything remotely near zero-sum. The actions of the players of a country’s game of politics have very far-reaching effects on the citizens and residents of that country, and in some cases of the residents of the entire world.
The actions of the players definitely do affect the world at large in ways outside the scope of the game, which makes it about as far from zero-sum as it could possibly be. I’m pretty sure that this changes the outcome of your thought experiment dramatically.