It is usually really quite obvious! It depends a lot on what you mean by “irredeemably a bad fit” but definitely “not going to by default go well unless someone puts in heroic effort, which nobody will unless someone has specifically signed up for doing that”. For some taste of a bunch of people I think this applies to, you could check out the moderation log at https://www.lesswrong.com/moderation.
Basically all of it except the user bans are for low quality content (and almost all of that, LLM written, at least these days). It’s important to filter stuff like that out and I’m very glad you guys are doing it, but I don’t think that this is keeping out many conterfactual Girards and Zizes. (I don’t know as much about Torres and Nier).
If we condition on “doesn’t post obviously low quality content”, we’re left with a distribution almost entirely filled with people we want in our community, and yet still contains Girard and Ziz (and I’m guessing the others as well). My ass-numbers prior is at least 20:1 in favor of them being a good fit. Please correct me if I’m wrong about this.
Looking at the each banned user and sorting by “old” on their posts and comments, I usually didn’t find anything that would provide much of an update on this prior. Maybe at most a 1:3 likelihood ratio. However, I’m probably less tuned to these sort of things than you and other moderators. Do you know of specific warning signs that {Girard, Nier, Torres, Ziz and co.} exhibited early on that could have been stronger evidence of this?
It is usually really quite obvious! It depends a lot on what you mean by “irredeemably a bad fit” but definitely “not going to by default go well unless someone puts in heroic effort, which nobody will unless someone has specifically signed up for doing that”. For some taste of a bunch of people I think this applies to, you could check out the moderation log at https://www.lesswrong.com/moderation.
Basically all of it except the user bans are for low quality content (and almost all of that, LLM written, at least these days). It’s important to filter stuff like that out and I’m very glad you guys are doing it, but I don’t think that this is keeping out many conterfactual Girards and Zizes. (I don’t know as much about Torres and Nier).
If we condition on “doesn’t post obviously low quality content”, we’re left with a distribution almost entirely filled with people we want in our community, and yet still contains Girard and Ziz (and I’m guessing the others as well). My ass-numbers prior is at least 20:1 in favor of them being a good fit. Please correct me if I’m wrong about this.
Looking at the each banned user and sorting by “old” on their posts and comments, I usually didn’t find anything that would provide much of an update on this prior. Maybe at most a 1:3 likelihood ratio. However, I’m probably less tuned to these sort of things than you and other moderators. Do you know of specific warning signs that {Girard, Nier, Torres, Ziz and co.} exhibited early on that could have been stronger evidence of this?
Edit: where → we’re