Twitter could implement a play-money prediction market just like metaculus or manifold markets—they could even consider buying one of these teams. Ideally, starting or voting on a prediction market would be as easy as running a Twitter poll. (Reddit recently did something similar.) Having large, metaculus-style prediction markets on newsworthy events might directly help important online conversations become more productive, more reality-based, and less polarized. And in the long run, familiarizing people with how prediction markets work might also encourage/legitimize the further adoption of prediction markets as information sources to inform decisionmaking.
A key of what distinguishes Metaculus from PredictionBook before it is that it’s harder and not easier to start prediction markets. A good prediction market should have well defined questions.
I would expect that having curated markets with well-defined questions would still be good. Twitter could hire a handful of people to write and score the predictions for the most important issues of the day.
Then you could turn the system so that people who actually make predictions get their tweets that are related more often surfaced to the top than the average person.
Twitter could implement a play-money prediction market just like metaculus or manifold markets—they could even consider buying one of these teams. Ideally, starting or voting on a prediction market would be as easy as running a Twitter poll. (Reddit recently did something similar.) Having large, metaculus-style prediction markets on newsworthy events might directly help important online conversations become more productive, more reality-based, and less polarized. And in the long run, familiarizing people with how prediction markets work might also encourage/legitimize the further adoption of prediction markets as information sources to inform decisionmaking.
Yes, great idea. An epistemic golden age will result when it’s possible to dunk on people by making better predictions than them.
A key of what distinguishes Metaculus from PredictionBook before it is that it’s harder and not easier to start prediction markets. A good prediction market should have well defined questions.
I would expect that having curated markets with well-defined questions would still be good. Twitter could hire a handful of people to write and score the predictions for the most important issues of the day.
Then you could turn the system so that people who actually make predictions get their tweets that are related more often surfaced to the top than the average person.
Metaculus (unlike Manifold) is not a market and does not use play money except in the same sense that Tetris score is play money.