Also got Amanda Knox right. As others said, he made bad predictions about transhumanist technologies as a teen, although he would say this was before he benefited from learning about rationality and disavowed them (in advance).
Although I agree that he got the Amanda Knox thing right, I don’t think it actually counts as a prediction—he wasn’t saying whether or not the jury would find her innocent the second time round, and as far as I can tell no new information came out after Eliezer made his call.
Also got Amanda Knox right. As others said, he made bad predictions about transhumanist technologies as a teen, although he would say this was before he benefited from learning about rationality and disavowed them (in advance).
Although I agree that he got the Amanda Knox thing right, I don’t think it actually counts as a prediction—he wasn’t saying whether or not the jury would find her innocent the second time round, and as far as I can tell no new information came out after Eliezer made his call.
As I pointed out in the postmortem, there were at least 3 distinct forms of information that one could update on well after that survey was done.