Superforecasters can beat domain experts, as shown in Phil Tetlock’s work comparing superforecasters to intelligence analysts.
This isn’t accurate, see this post: especially (3a), (3b), and https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZEEaVP_HVSwyz8VApYJij5RjEiw3mI7d-j6vWAKaGQ8/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.mma60cenrfmh Goldstein et al (2015)
This isn’t accurate, see this post: especially (3a), (3b), and https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZEEaVP_HVSwyz8VApYJij5RjEiw3mI7d-j6vWAKaGQ8/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.mma60cenrfmh Goldstein et al (2015)