Causal decision theory constructs its counterfactuals by intervening at the moment of the decision as making it so that you “magically” take a different choice instead. Since it only intervenes late in the story, the prediction remains the same in this model, so it makes the wrong decision.
Causal decision theory constructs its counterfactuals by intervening at the moment of the decision as making it so that you “magically” take a different choice instead. Since it only intervenes late in the story, the prediction remains the same in this model, so it makes the wrong decision.
Here’s a pretty good primer