How much do you think the skill you used is the basic superforcaster skill? Did you do Metaculus or GJOpen and think people with similar forcasting skills are likely also going to be good at investing or do you think you had different skill that go beyond that?
It seems like a good question, but unfortunately I have no familiarity with superforecasting, having never learned about it or participated in anything related except by reading some superficial descriptions of what it is.
Until Feb 2020 I had little interest in making empirical forecasts, since I didn’t see it as part of my intellectual interests, and believed in EMH or didn’t think it would be worth my time/effort to try to beat the market, so I just left such forecasting to others and deferred to other people who seem to have good epistemics.
If I had to guess based on my shallow understanding of superforecasting, I would say while there are probably overlapping skills, there’s a strategic component to trading, which involves things like which sectors to allocate attention to, how to spot the best opportunities and allocate capital to them, while not taking too much concentrated risk, explore vs exploit type decisions, which are not part of superforecasting.
How much do you think the skill you used is the basic superforcaster skill? Did you do Metaculus or GJOpen and think people with similar forcasting skills are likely also going to be good at investing or do you think you had different skill that go beyond that?
It seems like a good question, but unfortunately I have no familiarity with superforecasting, having never learned about it or participated in anything related except by reading some superficial descriptions of what it is.
Until Feb 2020 I had little interest in making empirical forecasts, since I didn’t see it as part of my intellectual interests, and believed in EMH or didn’t think it would be worth my time/effort to try to beat the market, so I just left such forecasting to others and deferred to other people who seem to have good epistemics.
If I had to guess based on my shallow understanding of superforecasting, I would say while there are probably overlapping skills, there’s a strategic component to trading, which involves things like which sectors to allocate attention to, how to spot the best opportunities and allocate capital to them, while not taking too much concentrated risk, explore vs exploit type decisions, which are not part of superforecasting.