In this case I actually did feed the thread to Gemini 3.1 Pro and asked it how habryka would answer my question, and it said 1 or 4, and then habryka’s actual answer turned out to be closer to 2. Its reasoning, which I thought was plausible, was that habryka has a vision of the archipelago that he wants to achieve, that depends on authors being mods, so the cost of site mods wasn’t really a crux for him. So I was kind of surprised when I saw habryka’s actual answer.
I suspect you may be overestimating how clear your writings/answers are, or how much you explained things, or how relevant previous explanations are given new assumptions, or how much I can/should trust you/others to represent habrya. For example, I asked earlier “Why can’t one of the other experienced mods train or manage the new mod?” and got no answer to this (confirmed via LLM that it wasn’t answered or explained anywhere in the entire comment tree rooted at the shortform OP), so there’s a big blank spot in my model of what’s going on at Lightcone.
Ah, well cool that you tried that and sorry it didn’t work.
But to clarify, I would be using Fable for this, I don’t have a belief that older models are able to track the arguments here.
I don’t have that strong a belief that this “ask the models” thing will turn out to work, maybe that’s a dead-end for now. But, insofar as the idea has promise I’d be doing this with Fable, making sure it’s read Meta-tations on Moderation: Towards Public Archipelago , Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on moderation) and all comments on those, and reading your shortform page for all comments between you and habryka on moderation.
One reason I think this problem is on your side is that Oliver has said multiple times “we are not doing this because Eliezer said so”, and you repeated the belief that we were in your most recent interaction.
There are less straightforward reasons for that but if you’re still ignoring basic statements like that the conversation feels pretty hopeless to me.
For example, I asked earlier “Why can’t one of the other experienced mods train or manage the new mod?” and got no answer to this (confirmed via LLM that it wasn’t answered or explained anywhere in the entire comment tree rooted at the shortform OP)
Oh I see. To explain why I “ignored” it, I thought what you wrote wasn’t directly relevant to what I was trying to do at the time, which was to test whether Lightcone might be amenable to my offer. I had my reasons for thinking that the offer would be a win for me despite what you wrote, basically because I think you didn’t quite understand how I thought it would solve (or at least possibly solve) the problem, but I didn’t feel like taking the time to explain. Because if Lightcone wouldn’t be amenable to the offer, then explaining my model of how it would help me would be kind of pointless.
In this case I actually did feed the thread to Gemini 3.1 Pro and asked it how habryka would answer my question, and it said 1 or 4, and then habryka’s actual answer turned out to be closer to 2. Its reasoning, which I thought was plausible, was that habryka has a vision of the archipelago that he wants to achieve, that depends on authors being mods, so the cost of site mods wasn’t really a crux for him. So I was kind of surprised when I saw habryka’s actual answer.
I suspect you may be overestimating how clear your writings/answers are, or how much you explained things, or how relevant previous explanations are given new assumptions, or how much I can/should trust you/others to represent habrya. For example, I asked earlier “Why can’t one of the other experienced mods train or manage the new mod?” and got no answer to this (confirmed via LLM that it wasn’t answered or explained anywhere in the entire comment tree rooted at the shortform OP), so there’s a big blank spot in my model of what’s going on at Lightcone.
Ah, well cool that you tried that and sorry it didn’t work.
But to clarify, I would be using Fable for this, I don’t have a belief that older models are able to track the arguments here.
I don’t have that strong a belief that this “ask the models” thing will turn out to work, maybe that’s a dead-end for now. But, insofar as the idea has promise I’d be doing this with Fable, making sure it’s read Meta-tations on Moderation: Towards Public Archipelago , Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on moderation) and all comments on those, and reading your shortform page for all comments between you and habryka on moderation.
One reason I think this problem is on your side is that Oliver has said multiple times “we are not doing this because Eliezer said so”, and you repeated the belief that we were in your most recent interaction.
There are less straightforward reasons for that but if you’re still ignoring basic statements like that the conversation feels pretty hopeless to me.
fyi I have stopped answering questions like this after you ignored most of the content of this comment, which stated pretty clearly what sorts of discussion would be likely to move us, and why: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HbkNAyAoa4gCnuzwa/wei-dai-s-shortform?commentId=betXXw7gFskNfiHp3
Oh I see. To explain why I “ignored” it, I thought what you wrote wasn’t directly relevant to what I was trying to do at the time, which was to test whether Lightcone might be amenable to my offer. I had my reasons for thinking that the offer would be a win for me despite what you wrote, basically because I think you didn’t quite understand how I thought it would solve (or at least possibly solve) the problem, but I didn’t feel like taking the time to explain. Because if Lightcone wouldn’t be amenable to the offer, then explaining my model of how it would help me would be kind of pointless.