There are some good parts but I’m baffled by your attitude towards “general intelligence” and towards timelines too. You seem to say something is AGI, only if it’s better at everything than you are. But isn’t an “IQ 80″ human being, also a general intelligence?
As far as I’m concerned, ChatGPT is already a general intelligence. It has a highly inhuman balance of skills, and I don’t believe it to be a conscious intelligence, but functionally, it is a kind of general intelligence.
What you call AGI, is more like what I would call superintelligence. And now that we have a recipe for a kind of general intelligence that can run on computers, with everything that implies—speed, copyability, modifiability—and which is being tinkered with, by literally millions of people—the fuse is lit. I have an Eric Schmidt timeline to superintelligence, 0-5 years.
There are some good parts but I’m baffled by your attitude towards “general intelligence” and towards timelines too. You seem to say something is AGI, only if it’s better at everything than you are. But isn’t an “IQ 80″ human being, also a general intelligence?
As far as I’m concerned, ChatGPT is already a general intelligence. It has a highly inhuman balance of skills, and I don’t believe it to be a conscious intelligence, but functionally, it is a kind of general intelligence.
What you call AGI, is more like what I would call superintelligence. And now that we have a recipe for a kind of general intelligence that can run on computers, with everything that implies—speed, copyability, modifiability—and which is being tinkered with, by literally millions of people—the fuse is lit. I have an Eric Schmidt timeline to superintelligence, 0-5 years.