The goal is vague because I don’t know how to get started with it.
I’m not quite sure what you’re saying with the rest of your comment. I understand that economics and foreign policy are basically two different areas. However, the policies of both fields interact quite a lot, and both disciplines use many of the same tools, such as games theory and statistical analysis. I would perhaps even argue that IR studies would be improved overall if they were widely conceived of as a sub discipline of economics. They also share many of the same problems.
For example, in both fields there are large difficulties with comparing the results of economic and foreign policies and comparing them to the results that other policies counterfactually would have had, because countries are radically different in one time period as compared to another, and because policies themselves are more or less appropriate for some countries than others. Figuring out how to apply the lessons of one time and place to another is more or less what I was envisioning when I said that I wanted to make the social sciences more empirical.
There are also problems with measuring variables in both fields. In science, it’s relatively easy to determine what the output amount of energy from a system is, or the velocity of a specific object at a specific time. But in economics and IR, we have lots of trouble even understanding exactly what the inputs and outputs are or would be, let alone understanding their relationship with one another. For example, uncertainty is hugely important in IR and in economics, but it seems almost impossible to measure. Even more obvious things, like the number of troops in a certain country or the number of jobs in a specific sector, are often debated intensely by people within these fields.
Without the ability to measure inputs or outputs of policy processes or the ability to compare those processes to the hypothetical effectiveness that other policies might have had, these fields are crippled. If there is any way to get around these problems or to minimize them, we really need to figure it out. This will be really really hard, if not impossible, but it’s probably the most effective nonscientific thing that we can be doing to minimize existential risk.
TL;DR: I want to be Harry Seldon except in real life.
The goal is vague because I don’t know how to get started with it.
I’m not quite sure what you’re saying with the rest of your comment. I understand that economics and foreign policy are basically two different areas. However, the policies of both fields interact quite a lot, and both disciplines use many of the same tools, such as games theory and statistical analysis. I would perhaps even argue that IR studies would be improved overall if they were widely conceived of as a sub discipline of economics. They also share many of the same problems.
For example, in both fields there are large difficulties with comparing the results of economic and foreign policies and comparing them to the results that other policies counterfactually would have had, because countries are radically different in one time period as compared to another, and because policies themselves are more or less appropriate for some countries than others. Figuring out how to apply the lessons of one time and place to another is more or less what I was envisioning when I said that I wanted to make the social sciences more empirical.
There are also problems with measuring variables in both fields. In science, it’s relatively easy to determine what the output amount of energy from a system is, or the velocity of a specific object at a specific time. But in economics and IR, we have lots of trouble even understanding exactly what the inputs and outputs are or would be, let alone understanding their relationship with one another. For example, uncertainty is hugely important in IR and in economics, but it seems almost impossible to measure. Even more obvious things, like the number of troops in a certain country or the number of jobs in a specific sector, are often debated intensely by people within these fields.
Without the ability to measure inputs or outputs of policy processes or the ability to compare those processes to the hypothetical effectiveness that other policies might have had, these fields are crippled. If there is any way to get around these problems or to minimize them, we really need to figure it out. This will be really really hard, if not impossible, but it’s probably the most effective nonscientific thing that we can be doing to minimize existential risk.
TL;DR: I want to be Harry Seldon except in real life.