Mmmm. Okay this looks like a really good one. We need a title for it so I can add this to the list. “Make Social Sciences Rigorous” might work… but I think people are already trying to be rigorous, and “more rigorous” is kind of vague. We need a nice solid, concrete goal. Maybe there’s a more strict, more specific term than rigorous… “logically consistent” or … hmmm… what specific goals would you say would best express this vision?
I also feel a need to clarify the term “social sciences”. You give examples like how there are too many unknowns in economics and foreign policy. This feels like two separate problems. In a way, they are. What you’re saying here is “The way to solve all these problems in all these diverse areas is by making social sciences more rigorous”. That, I can believe, for sure. However, I don’t think that would be the entire solution. When it comes to anything political, there are also large masses of people involved in the decision-making process. They may choose the most rational, most scientifically valid option… or they might not. You might counter with “If we understood why they make decisions that are against their own best interests, we could wake them up to what’s going on.” Is that what you’re envisioning?
Would you spell out the whole line of reasoning?
P.S. I redid a lot of the original post, any suggestions?
The goal is vague because I don’t know how to get started with it.
I’m not quite sure what you’re saying with the rest of your comment. I understand that economics and foreign policy are basically two different areas. However, the policies of both fields interact quite a lot, and both disciplines use many of the same tools, such as games theory and statistical analysis. I would perhaps even argue that IR studies would be improved overall if they were widely conceived of as a sub discipline of economics. They also share many of the same problems.
For example, in both fields there are large difficulties with comparing the results of economic and foreign policies and comparing them to the results that other policies counterfactually would have had, because countries are radically different in one time period as compared to another, and because policies themselves are more or less appropriate for some countries than others. Figuring out how to apply the lessons of one time and place to another is more or less what I was envisioning when I said that I wanted to make the social sciences more empirical.
There are also problems with measuring variables in both fields. In science, it’s relatively easy to determine what the output amount of energy from a system is, or the velocity of a specific object at a specific time. But in economics and IR, we have lots of trouble even understanding exactly what the inputs and outputs are or would be, let alone understanding their relationship with one another. For example, uncertainty is hugely important in IR and in economics, but it seems almost impossible to measure. Even more obvious things, like the number of troops in a certain country or the number of jobs in a specific sector, are often debated intensely by people within these fields.
Without the ability to measure inputs or outputs of policy processes or the ability to compare those processes to the hypothetical effectiveness that other policies might have had, these fields are crippled. If there is any way to get around these problems or to minimize them, we really need to figure it out. This will be really really hard, if not impossible, but it’s probably the most effective nonscientific thing that we can be doing to minimize existential risk.
TL;DR: I want to be Harry Seldon except in real life.
Mmmm. Okay this looks like a really good one. We need a title for it so I can add this to the list. “Make Social Sciences Rigorous” might work… but I think people are already trying to be rigorous, and “more rigorous” is kind of vague. We need a nice solid, concrete goal. Maybe there’s a more strict, more specific term than rigorous… “logically consistent” or … hmmm… what specific goals would you say would best express this vision?
I also feel a need to clarify the term “social sciences”. You give examples like how there are too many unknowns in economics and foreign policy. This feels like two separate problems. In a way, they are. What you’re saying here is “The way to solve all these problems in all these diverse areas is by making social sciences more rigorous”. That, I can believe, for sure. However, I don’t think that would be the entire solution. When it comes to anything political, there are also large masses of people involved in the decision-making process. They may choose the most rational, most scientifically valid option… or they might not. You might counter with “If we understood why they make decisions that are against their own best interests, we could wake them up to what’s going on.” Is that what you’re envisioning?
Would you spell out the whole line of reasoning?
P.S. I redid a lot of the original post, any suggestions?
The goal is vague because I don’t know how to get started with it.
I’m not quite sure what you’re saying with the rest of your comment. I understand that economics and foreign policy are basically two different areas. However, the policies of both fields interact quite a lot, and both disciplines use many of the same tools, such as games theory and statistical analysis. I would perhaps even argue that IR studies would be improved overall if they were widely conceived of as a sub discipline of economics. They also share many of the same problems.
For example, in both fields there are large difficulties with comparing the results of economic and foreign policies and comparing them to the results that other policies counterfactually would have had, because countries are radically different in one time period as compared to another, and because policies themselves are more or less appropriate for some countries than others. Figuring out how to apply the lessons of one time and place to another is more or less what I was envisioning when I said that I wanted to make the social sciences more empirical.
There are also problems with measuring variables in both fields. In science, it’s relatively easy to determine what the output amount of energy from a system is, or the velocity of a specific object at a specific time. But in economics and IR, we have lots of trouble even understanding exactly what the inputs and outputs are or would be, let alone understanding their relationship with one another. For example, uncertainty is hugely important in IR and in economics, but it seems almost impossible to measure. Even more obvious things, like the number of troops in a certain country or the number of jobs in a specific sector, are often debated intensely by people within these fields.
Without the ability to measure inputs or outputs of policy processes or the ability to compare those processes to the hypothetical effectiveness that other policies might have had, these fields are crippled. If there is any way to get around these problems or to minimize them, we really need to figure it out. This will be really really hard, if not impossible, but it’s probably the most effective nonscientific thing that we can be doing to minimize existential risk.
TL;DR: I want to be Harry Seldon except in real life.