I strongly feel Habryka is right here. Things are not that contingent.
In particular, the invocation of chaos theory feels misleading here. The weather is chaotic on relevant timescales but most of our world and society is very much not.
The weather significantly impacts society, especially lately. Eg, to pick one kind of event, via wikipedia via IPCC report 2021:
this has practical effects for a variety of parts of the economic network, notably shipping and natural disasters, both of which affect prices in ways that can affect what policies people want, as well as anyone who’s directly impacted by a natural disaster.
I strongly feel Habryka is right here. Things are not that contingent. In particular, the invocation of chaos theory feels misleading here. The weather is chaotic on relevant timescales but most of our world and society is very much not.
Interested to hear different intuitions
The weather significantly impacts society, especially lately. Eg, to pick one kind of event, via wikipedia via IPCC report 2021:
this has practical effects for a variety of parts of the economic network, notably shipping and natural disasters, both of which affect prices in ways that can affect what policies people want, as well as anyone who’s directly impacted by a natural disaster.
Steve Byrnes argument seems convincing.
If there’s 10% chance that the election depends on an event which is 1% quantum-random (e.g. the weather) then the overall event is 0.1% random.
How far back do you think an omniscient-modulo-quantum agent could‘ve predicted the 2024 result?
2020? 2017? 1980?