Hi Yair. What makes any event improbable is the presence of an improbable co-incidence.
You are correct that possessing a particular deck of cards, in any particular order, is not improbable. The reason it is not improbable is because there is no coincidence involved.
On the other hand, let’s say I have my own deck of cards, randomly shuffled, and when I check the order of the cards they exactly match the order of the cards in your deck. Now that would be improbable, because there is a low probability of observing such a co-incidence.
This is how the Hard Game is arranged in the above Awakening Game. You awaken only if there is a particular co-incidence between your pattern of heads and tails, and the result of 1000 fair coin flips.
Do you agree that if you find yourself awakened in the Awakening Game that you can infer it is overwhelmingly more likely that the Easy Game was played?
What is the important difference you can point to between the Hard Game and the Easy Game, and the Usual View and Universalism, when it comes to selecting which theory of personal identity is overwhelming more likely?
In universalism the question is then why out of all the parts of the consciousness I could happen to be experiencing, I’m experiencing this particular part.
As to #1: I am glad we agree regarding the awakening game.
As to #2: I think you may be operating under a differing understanding/definition of universalism than the one Zuboff is using in his brief proof. As far as I understand it here, universalism is not trying to answer the question of why out of all the consciousness that exists you are conscious of this part, but rather, why out of all the (far more numerous) potential people (most of whom were never born) you should be so fortunate to count yourself among those who were born.
Consider this slight variation of the Awakening Game (which Zuboff calls the Hotel of Countless Rooms). In this version, countless (let’s say 2^1000) people are put to sleep in the Hotel of Countless Rooms. Then 1000 fair coins are tossed to yield a 1000 digit binary number. Then one of two games is played:
Hard version: The occupant of that hotel room matching that number is awakened.
Easy version: All sleepers in every of the 2^1000 rooms is awakened.
Since you agree with the logic of the more basic Awakening Game, I would assume you would also reason that if you participated in this Hotel of Countless Rooms Awakening Game, and if you found yourself awakened, then you could correctly reason that it is far more likely the Easy Game was played, rather than you being the one lucky person out of the 2^1000 people, to have had the sequence of coins match their room number.
In this version, the parallel to universalism is much clearer. Consider all the other 2^1000-1 people who were left behind in the hard version, these are like all the possible people (all the possible genetic combinations of sperm cells and eggs) which are never realized on earth. That you now find yourself to be among the very few (among all the possible) people to have been born should be shocking, under the Usual View. It is like being the lone person awakened under the hard version of the Hotel of Countless Rooms.
Given the improbability of finding ourselves to be among those few, are we not then equally justified in reasoning that the “Usual View” is not the “game that was played”, but rather, Universalism, which says it doesn’t matter with what genes you happened to be born with, any consciousness that appears anywhere, is consciousness you will find yourself to be within?
It seems to me that one must use the SIA to justify your position for the Awakening Game, since sleepers are possible rather than actual observers.
Don’t you agree?
Note that in reality there are no actual paradoxes, only results that challenge our intuitions or assumptions. The awakening game and its implication of universalism is an example of such a challenge.
That’s like saying that every game of cards must be rigged, because otherwise the chance of having this particular card order is miniscule...
Hi Yair. What makes any event improbable is the presence of an improbable co-incidence.
You are correct that possessing a particular deck of cards, in any particular order, is not improbable. The reason it is not improbable is because there is no coincidence involved.
On the other hand, let’s say I have my own deck of cards, randomly shuffled, and when I check the order of the cards they exactly match the order of the cards in your deck. Now that would be improbable, because there is a low probability of observing such a co-incidence.
This is how the Hard Game is arranged in the above Awakening Game. You awaken only if there is a particular co-incidence between your pattern of heads and tails, and the result of 1000 fair coin flips.
Do you agree that if you find yourself awakened in the Awakening Game that you can infer it is overwhelmingly more likely that the Easy Game was played?
What is the important difference you can point to between the Hard Game and the Easy Game, and the Usual View and Universalism, when it comes to selecting which theory of personal identity is overwhelming more likely?
There is no other deck of cards here. There’s no copy of me to compare myself to, and say how curious that looks exactly like me.
Would you care to answer my two questions? I think I could formulate a better reply to you if I knew where you stand on those matters.
Yes
In universalism the question is then why out of all the parts of the consciousness I could happen to be experiencing, I’m experiencing this particular part.
Thank you Yair,
As to #1: I am glad we agree regarding the awakening game.
As to #2: I think you may be operating under a differing understanding/definition of universalism than the one Zuboff is using in his brief proof. As far as I understand it here, universalism is not trying to answer the question of why out of all the consciousness that exists you are conscious of this part, but rather, why out of all the (far more numerous) potential people (most of whom were never born) you should be so fortunate to count yourself among those who were born.
Consider this slight variation of the Awakening Game (which Zuboff calls the Hotel of Countless Rooms). In this version, countless (let’s say 2^1000) people are put to sleep in the Hotel of Countless Rooms. Then 1000 fair coins are tossed to yield a 1000 digit binary number. Then one of two games is played:
Hard version: The occupant of that hotel room matching that number is awakened.
Easy version: All sleepers in every of the 2^1000 rooms is awakened.
Since you agree with the logic of the more basic Awakening Game, I would assume you would also reason that if you participated in this Hotel of Countless Rooms Awakening Game, and if you found yourself awakened, then you could correctly reason that it is far more likely the Easy Game was played, rather than you being the one lucky person out of the 2^1000 people, to have had the sequence of coins match their room number.
In this version, the parallel to universalism is much clearer. Consider all the other 2^1000-1 people who were left behind in the hard version, these are like all the possible people (all the possible genetic combinations of sperm cells and eggs) which are never realized on earth. That you now find yourself to be among the very few (among all the possible) people to have been born should be shocking, under the Usual View. It is like being the lone person awakened under the hard version of the Hotel of Countless Rooms.
Given the improbability of finding ourselves to be among those few, are we not then equally justified in reasoning that the “Usual View” is not the “game that was played”, but rather, Universalism, which says it doesn’t matter with what genes you happened to be born with, any consciousness that appears anywhere, is consciousness you will find yourself to be within?
Ok, in that case you’re just basically referring to the SSA Vs SIA. That’s an old chestnut, and either way leads to seemingly paradoxical results.
It seems to me that one must use the SIA to justify your position for the Awakening Game, since sleepers are possible rather than actual observers.
Don’t you agree?
Note that in reality there are no actual paradoxes, only results that challenge our intuitions or assumptions. The awakening game and its implication of universalism is an example of such a challenge.