I agree that the utility discussion would make an excellent (which is to say, tough, and thereby informative) test case for this sort of format/tool.
If it included sufficiently flexible views on the relationship data between claims, and certain rudimentary annotation/linking features, it might work very well to maintain a persistent, and easy-to-reference, model of the existing disagreement and the state of the argument, quite apart from the probability calculation features per se. (Of course, now we’re veering into “mind-mapping software” territory, but I do think there’s some overlap there, and, incidentally, that that category of tools would be useful to survey and mine for ideas/lessons.)
The problem I see is that I don’t know of a good way to assign probability estimates to claims like that. (However, this problem—in its strong form—is one of the deepest conceptual disagreements that I have with Less Wrong and LW-adjacent thinking, so I don’t expect this to be quick or easy to resolve. There is also a weak form of the problem that concerns how to assign such probability estimates in practice; I don’t have an answer to that one, either.)
quite apart from the probability calculation features per se.
You’re right that the tool as described suggests that is should be used for predictions only, however I think the same tool should work for other kinds of claims. For math, I’d conflate P(A|B)=1 with the logical B->A. If you don’t have a full mathematical proof, then the implications you used should be weighted from 0 to 1. Whether it makes sense to apply probability laws to these weights is another question.
Regarding the utility discussion, one problem is that it had many branches (which one should we start with?). And the more demonic branch basically started with the claim that having explicit utility functions is useful for decision making. Is “useful” a bit too vague to be used in a claim? Perhaps it would be fine, to have “X is useful” if it is implied by “X can be used for Y”, but then I never gave such specific examples.
I agree that the utility discussion would make an excellent (which is to say, tough, and thereby informative) test case for this sort of format/tool.
If it included sufficiently flexible views on the relationship data between claims, and certain rudimentary annotation/linking features, it might work very well to maintain a persistent, and easy-to-reference, model of the existing disagreement and the state of the argument, quite apart from the probability calculation features per se. (Of course, now we’re veering into “mind-mapping software” territory, but I do think there’s some overlap there, and, incidentally, that that category of tools would be useful to survey and mine for ideas/lessons.)
The problem I see is that I don’t know of a good way to assign probability estimates to claims like that. (However, this problem—in its strong form—is one of the deepest conceptual disagreements that I have with Less Wrong and LW-adjacent thinking, so I don’t expect this to be quick or easy to resolve. There is also a weak form of the problem that concerns how to assign such probability estimates in practice; I don’t have an answer to that one, either.)
You’re right that the tool as described suggests that is should be used for predictions only, however I think the same tool should work for other kinds of claims. For math, I’d conflate P(A|B)=1 with the logical B->A. If you don’t have a full mathematical proof, then the implications you used should be weighted from 0 to 1. Whether it makes sense to apply probability laws to these weights is another question.
Regarding the utility discussion, one problem is that it had many branches (which one should we start with?). And the more demonic branch basically started with the claim that having explicit utility functions is useful for decision making. Is “useful” a bit too vague to be used in a claim? Perhaps it would be fine, to have “X is useful” if it is implied by “X can be used for Y”, but then I never gave such specific examples.