quite apart from the probability calculation features per se.
You’re right that the tool as described suggests that is should be used for predictions only, however I think the same tool should work for other kinds of claims. For math, I’d conflate P(A|B)=1 with the logical B->A. If you don’t have a full mathematical proof, then the implications you used should be weighted from 0 to 1. Whether it makes sense to apply probability laws to these weights is another question.
Regarding the utility discussion, one problem is that it had many branches (which one should we start with?). And the more demonic branch basically started with the claim that having explicit utility functions is useful for decision making. Is “useful” a bit too vague to be used in a claim? Perhaps it would be fine, to have “X is useful” if it is implied by “X can be used for Y”, but then I never gave such specific examples.
You’re right that the tool as described suggests that is should be used for predictions only, however I think the same tool should work for other kinds of claims. For math, I’d conflate P(A|B)=1 with the logical B->A. If you don’t have a full mathematical proof, then the implications you used should be weighted from 0 to 1. Whether it makes sense to apply probability laws to these weights is another question.
Regarding the utility discussion, one problem is that it had many branches (which one should we start with?). And the more demonic branch basically started with the claim that having explicit utility functions is useful for decision making. Is “useful” a bit too vague to be used in a claim? Perhaps it would be fine, to have “X is useful” if it is implied by “X can be used for Y”, but then I never gave such specific examples.