I had a lot of fun translating one of the contradictions into a Dutch book, until I realized that’s pointless, because any two users disagreeing about any probability is already enough for a Dutch book. The next step could be a prediction market where people can Dutch book each other for real, but I’m not sure these work well with distant future events and play money.
Great work, thanks a lot for doing this!
I had a lot of fun translating one of the contradictions into a Dutch book, until I realized that’s pointless, because any two users disagreeing about any probability is already enough for a Dutch book. The next step could be a prediction market where people can Dutch book each other for real, but I’m not sure these work well with distant future events and play money.