P(Supernatural) What is the probability that supernatural events, defined as those involving ontologically basic mental entities, have occurred since the beginning of the universe?
P(God) What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural (see above) intelligent entity who created the universe?
So deism (God creating the universe but not being involved in the universe once it began) could make p(God) > p(Supernatural).
Looking at the the data by individual instead of in aggregate, 82 people have p(God) > p(Supernatural); 223 have p(Supernatural) > p(God).
Yea, I noticed that too. They are so close together that I wrote it off as noise, though. Otherwise, it can be explained by religious people being irrational and unwilling to place god in the same category as ghosts and other “low status” beliefs. That doesn’t indicate irrationality on the part of the rest of less wrong.
They are so close together that I wrote it off as noise, though.
That would work if it was separate surveys, but in order to get that on one survey, individual people would have to give a higher probability to God than any supernatural.
True, but this could be the result of a handful of people giving a crazy answer (noise). Not really indicative of less wrong as a whole. I imagine most less wrongers gave negligible probabilities for both, allowing a few religious people to skew the results.
Neither, I meant people who don’t understand that the probability of a god should be less than the probability of something supernatural existing. Add in religious certainty and you get a handful of people giving answers like P(god) = 99% and P(supernatural) = 50% which can easily skew the results if the rest of less wrong gives probabilities like 1%and 2% respectively. Given what Yvain wrote in the OP though, I think there’s also plenty of evidence of trolls upsetting the results somewhat at points.
Of course, it would make much more sense to ask Yvain for more data on how people answered this question rather than speculate on this matter :p
It’s a bit of a nonstandard definition of the supernatural, but I took it to mean mental phenomena as causeless nodes in a causal graph: that is, that mental phenomena (thoughts, feelings, “souls”) exist which do not have physical causes and yet generate physical consequences. By this interpretation, libertarian free will and most conceptions of the soul would both fall under supernaturalism, as would the prerequisites for most types of magic, gods, spirits, etc.
I’m not sure I’d have picked that phrasing, though. It seems to be entangled with epistemological reductionism in a way that might, for a sufficiently careful reading, obscure more conventional conceptions of the “supernatural”: I’d expect more people to believe in naive versions of free will than do in, say, fairies. Still, it’s a pretty fuzzy concept to begin with.
OK, thanks. I also tend to interpret “ontologically basic” as a causeless node in a causal graph. I’m not sure what is meant by ‘mental’. (For example, in the case of free will or a soul.) I think this is important, because “ontologically basic” in of itself isn’t something I’d be skeptical about. For example, as far as I know, matter is ontologically basic at some level.
A hypothesis: Mental perhaps implies subjective in some sense, perhaps even as far as meaning that an ontologically basic entity is mental if it is a node that is not only without physical cause but also has no physical effect. In which case, I again see no reason to be skeptical of their existence as a category.
It’s barely above background noise, but my guess is when specifically asked about ontologically basic mental entities, people will say no (or huh?), but when asked about God a few will decline to define supernatural in that way or decline to insist on God as supernatural.
It’s an odd result if you think everyone is being completely consistent about how they answer all the questions, but if you ask me, if they all were it would be an odd result in itself.
I think Yvain’s stipulative definition of “supernatural” was a bad move. I would be very surprised if I asked a theologian to define “supernatural” and they replied “ontologically basic mental entity”. Even as a rational reconstruction of their reply, it would be quite a stretch. Using such specific definitions of contentious concepts isn’t a good idea, if you want to know what proportion of Less Wrongers are atheist/agnostic/deist/theist/polytheist.
??
So deism (God creating the universe but not being involved in the universe once it began) could make p(God) > p(Supernatural).
Looking at the the data by individual instead of in aggregate, 82 people have p(God) > p(Supernatural); 223 have p(Supernatural) > p(God).
Given this, the numbers no longer seem anomalous. Thank you.
Except that the question specified “God” as an ontologically basic mental entity.
So they believe that God created the universe, but has ceased to exist since.
We have 82 Nietzscheans.
Yea, I noticed that too. They are so close together that I wrote it off as noise, though. Otherwise, it can be explained by religious people being irrational and unwilling to place god in the same category as ghosts and other “low status” beliefs. That doesn’t indicate irrationality on the part of the rest of less wrong.
That would work if it was separate surveys, but in order to get that on one survey, individual people would have to give a higher probability to God than any supernatural.
True, but this could be the result of a handful of people giving a crazy answer (noise). Not really indicative of less wrong as a whole. I imagine most less wrongers gave negligible probabilities for both, allowing a few religious people to skew the results.
I was thinking you meant statistical error.
Do you mean trolls, or people who don’t understand the question?
Neither, I meant people who don’t understand that the probability of a god should be less than the probability of something supernatural existing. Add in religious certainty and you get a handful of people giving answers like P(god) = 99% and P(supernatural) = 50% which can easily skew the results if the rest of less wrong gives probabilities like 1%and 2% respectively. Given what Yvain wrote in the OP though, I think there’s also plenty of evidence of trolls upsetting the results somewhat at points.
Of course, it would make much more sense to ask Yvain for more data on how people answered this question rather than speculate on this matter :p
Could someone break down what is meant by “ontologically basic mental entities”? Especially, I’m not certain of the role of the word ‘mental’..
It’s a bit of a nonstandard definition of the supernatural, but I took it to mean mental phenomena as causeless nodes in a causal graph: that is, that mental phenomena (thoughts, feelings, “souls”) exist which do not have physical causes and yet generate physical consequences. By this interpretation, libertarian free will and most conceptions of the soul would both fall under supernaturalism, as would the prerequisites for most types of magic, gods, spirits, etc.
I’m not sure I’d have picked that phrasing, though. It seems to be entangled with epistemological reductionism in a way that might, for a sufficiently careful reading, obscure more conventional conceptions of the “supernatural”: I’d expect more people to believe in naive versions of free will than do in, say, fairies. Still, it’s a pretty fuzzy concept to begin with.
OK, thanks. I also tend to interpret “ontologically basic” as a causeless node in a causal graph. I’m not sure what is meant by ‘mental’. (For example, in the case of free will or a soul.) I think this is important, because “ontologically basic” in of itself isn’t something I’d be skeptical about. For example, as far as I know, matter is ontologically basic at some level.
A hypothesis: Mental perhaps implies subjective in some sense, perhaps even as far as meaning that an ontologically basic entity is mental if it is a node that is not only without physical cause but also has no physical effect. In which case, I again see no reason to be skeptical of their existence as a category.
It’s barely above background noise, but my guess is when specifically asked about ontologically basic mental entities, people will say no (or huh?), but when asked about God a few will decline to define supernatural in that way or decline to insist on God as supernatural.
It’s an odd result if you think everyone is being completely consistent about how they answer all the questions, but if you ask me, if they all were it would be an odd result in itself.
I think Yvain’s stipulative definition of “supernatural” was a bad move. I would be very surprised if I asked a theologian to define “supernatural” and they replied “ontologically basic mental entity”. Even as a rational reconstruction of their reply, it would be quite a stretch. Using such specific definitions of contentious concepts isn’t a good idea, if you want to know what proportion of Less Wrongers are atheist/agnostic/deist/theist/polytheist.