Is there a way for people to express the probability that an AI already came into existence in the past?
Not in particular, but I guess answers to questions like ‘how long until a 50% chance of HLMI’ can incorporate the probability that HLMI already exists. I would be surprised if a nontrivial fraction of respondents assigned nontrivial probability to HLMI already existing. We do not believe that HLMI currently exists, and our analysis may sometimes assume that HLMI does not yet exist.
Not in particular, but I guess answers to questions like ‘how long until a 50% chance of HLMI’ can incorporate the probability that HLMI already exists. I would be surprised if a nontrivial fraction of respondents assigned nontrivial probability to HLMI already existing. We do not believe that HLMI currently exists, and our analysis may sometimes assume that HLMI does not yet exist.
(I do not represent AI Impacts, etc.)