I would prefer a more general question about arguments of this form (doomsday argument, “thirdism” in the Sleeping Beauty problem, etc.). I know of very intelligent people who think such arguments are obviously sound and very intelligent people who think they are obviously unsound.
The question as phrased assumes that the simulation argument is valid if you accept the priors; you can say you’re not familiar with the simulation argument but you can’t say that you think it is wrong. This seems like another sign that opinions on this are strong—as stated this question reminds me of a push poll.
you can say you’re not familiar with the simulation argument but you can’t say that you think it is wrong.
Yes you can, option 4, but if that isn’t clear then it should be written as something like: ‘I disagree with the simulation argument—none of the first 3 propositions are true.’
What’s your take on the simulation argument? If you’ve no strong opinion, pick the most likely:
The human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage.
Any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof).
We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
I deny that at least one of the above propositions is true.
I’m unfamilier with the simulation argument.
I would prefer a more general question about arguments of this form (doomsday argument, “thirdism” in the Sleeping Beauty problem, etc.). I know of very intelligent people who think such arguments are obviously sound and very intelligent people who think they are obviously unsound.
Count me in the camp that thinks they are obviously pointless.
One reason I’m interested in this is that people’s choices vary but most people, myself included, believe their choice is clearly correct.
In fact, I’d ask for another question beneath it: If you picked one of the first 4 options, how confident are you that you’re correct?
One reason I’m interested in this is people’s choices vary widly, but most people, myself included, believe their choice is clearly correct.
In fact, I’d ask for another question beneath it: If you picked one of the first 4 options, how confident are you that you’re correct?
One reason I’m interested in this is people’s choices vary widly, but most people believe their choice is clearly correct.
In fact, I’d ask for another question beneath it: If you picked one of the first 4 options, how confident are you that you’re correct?
The question as phrased assumes that the simulation argument is valid if you accept the priors; you can say you’re not familiar with the simulation argument but you can’t say that you think it is wrong. This seems like another sign that opinions on this are strong—as stated this question reminds me of a push poll.
Yes you can, option 4, but if that isn’t clear then it should be written as something like: ‘I disagree with the simulation argument—none of the first 3 propositions are true.’
Yes you can: option 4.