Does anyone know if proceeds/profits of “If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies” are going to MIRI or another charity? I’m going to read it either way, but I really think if you’re going to make the “buy this book for the good of humanity” pitch you shouldn’t be profiting off it.
Recent days have seen lots of claims that AI is a bubble. Assuming that AI is correctly priced they are likely to be able to claim victory, at least naively. This will be true of any asset class with a very high upside. Lets define F as the true fundamental value of an asset class at a given time and p(F) as the best possible estimate of the probability distribution of F. If the asset class is priced correctly, the market price will be mp=E(F)=∫inf0p(F)FdF. If we say that an asset class will be naively considered a bubble in hindsight if mp>fundamental value We can defined p(B) as the probability of an asset class to appear to be a bubble in retrospect. P(B)=∫mp0p(F)dF. For example for a probability distribution where 50% of the value lies in the top 10% of best case scenarios, there is a 90% chance that the true fundamental value of the asset class is below the current market price. To really determine if there was a bubble you would need to deeply research the topic to attempt to determine if the market price at the time was in line with the expected value of the fundamental value given the information available at the time.
Does anyone know if proceeds/profits of “If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies” are going to MIRI or another charity? I’m going to read it either way, but I really think if you’re going to make the “buy this book for the good of humanity” pitch you shouldn’t be profiting off it.
Recent days have seen lots of claims that AI is a bubble. Assuming that AI is correctly priced they are likely to be able to claim victory, at least naively. This will be true of any asset class with a very high upside. Lets define F as the true fundamental value of an asset class at a given time and p(F) as the best possible estimate of the probability distribution of F. If the asset class is priced correctly, the market price will be mp=E(F)=∫inf0p(F)FdF. If we say that an asset class will be naively considered a bubble in hindsight if mp>fundamental value We can defined p(B) as the probability of an asset class to appear to be a bubble in retrospect. P(B)=∫mp0p(F)dF. For example for a probability distribution where 50% of the value lies in the top 10% of best case scenarios, there is a 90% chance that the true fundamental value of the asset class is below the current market price. To really determine if there was a bubble you would need to deeply research the topic to attempt to determine if the market price at the time was in line with the expected value of the fundamental value given the information available at the time.