I think you’re totally spot on about ChatGPT and near term LLMs. The technology is still super far away from anything that could actually replace a programmer because of all of the complexities involved.
Where I think you go wrong is looking at the long term future AIs. As a black box, at work I take in instructions on Slack (text), look at the existing code and documentation (text), and produce merge requests, documentation, and requests for more detailed requirements (text). Nothing there requires some essentially human element—the AI just needs to be good at guessing what requirements the product team and customers want and then asking questions and running tests to further divine how the product should work. If specifying a piece of software in English is a nightmare, then your boss’s job is already a nightmare, since that’s what they do. The key is that they can give a specification, answer questions about the specification, and review implementations of that specification along the way, and those are all things that an AI could do.
I’m already an intelligence that takes in English specifications and produces code, and there’s no fundamental reason that my intelligence can’t be replaced by an artificial one.
I think you’re totally spot on about ChatGPT and near term LLMs. The technology is still super far away from anything that could actually replace a programmer because of all of the complexities involved.
Where I think you go wrong is looking at the long term future AIs. As a black box, at work I take in instructions on Slack (text), look at the existing code and documentation (text), and produce merge requests, documentation, and requests for more detailed requirements (text). Nothing there requires some essentially human element—the AI just needs to be good at guessing what requirements the product team and customers want and then asking questions and running tests to further divine how the product should work. If specifying a piece of software in English is a nightmare, then your boss’s job is already a nightmare, since that’s what they do. The key is that they can give a specification, answer questions about the specification, and review implementations of that specification along the way, and those are all things that an AI could do.
I’m already an intelligence that takes in English specifications and produces code, and there’s no fundamental reason that my intelligence can’t be replaced by an artificial one.