Does this allow discovery that you are in this situation?
E.g. you are the forgetful driver, that does not know about existence of this setup, and you drive straight, to C. At each intersection there is 1⁄2 chance you get a pamphlet with full explanation of this setup, including what is the chance you get the pamphlet.
How do you transition from the model you had before you got the pamphlet, to the model you have after?
E.g. before getting the pamphlet you look at the intersection and think “this can be intersection #1 or intersection #2”, but after, when you have been informed about the utility and got motivation to exit from straight path, what intersection it is start to depend on your policy? So that you can change probability (credence?) which this one is with your mind? Did you suddenly get a superpower?
Does this allow discovery that you are in this situation?
Sure.
E.g. you are the forgetful driver, that does not know about existence of this setup, and you drive straight, to C. At each intersection there is 1⁄2 chance you get a pamphlet with full explanation of this setup, including what is the chance you get the pamphlet.
There is an extra potential complication with information about the setting arriving in a probabilistic manner. For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the driver always gets a pamphlet on the intersection.
E.g. before getting the pamphlet you look at the intersection and think “this can be intersection #1 or intersection #2”
Yes, and after getting the pamphlet the driver is supposed to realize that they were using an incorrect mathematical model, that fails to capture the specifics of the real-world situation they are in. So, the driver says: “my map was wrong” and starts using the map correctly approximating the setting, instead.
This works exactly the same way as in any other case where you initially had incorrect model of the setting and then learned the truth. For instance, if you though that a D6 die is rolled, but in fact it’s D8. No superpowers involved.
Does this allow discovery that you are in this situation?
E.g. you are the forgetful driver, that does not know about existence of this setup, and you drive straight, to C. At each intersection there is 1⁄2 chance you get a pamphlet with full explanation of this setup, including what is the chance you get the pamphlet.
How do you transition from the model you had before you got the pamphlet, to the model you have after?
E.g. before getting the pamphlet you look at the intersection and think “this can be intersection #1 or intersection #2”, but after, when you have been informed about the utility and got motivation to exit from straight path, what intersection it is start to depend on your policy? So that you can change probability (credence?) which this one is with your mind? Did you suddenly get a superpower?
Sure.
There is an extra potential complication with information about the setting arriving in a probabilistic manner. For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the driver always gets a pamphlet on the intersection.
Yes, and after getting the pamphlet the driver is supposed to realize that they were using an incorrect mathematical model, that fails to capture the specifics of the real-world situation they are in. So, the driver says: “my map was wrong” and starts using the map correctly approximating the setting, instead.
This works exactly the same way as in any other case where you initially had incorrect model of the setting and then learned the truth. For instance, if you though that a D6 die is rolled, but in fact it’s D8. No superpowers involved.