Holy shit I seen to have been correct about every single prediction.
A. Calculator. Yep, python interpreter and Wolfram
B. Perception, yep, gpt-4v. Visualization, yep. Both gemini and gpt4 can do this decently.
C. RL on programming. Yep, alpha code 2.
D. RL on college. Yep, open sources models have been refined this way.
E. Internet browsing, yep old news
F. Salient context: announced as a feature for gpt-4, not actually available at scale I don’t think.
Update: I was wrong about this. Tons of different GPT-4 wrapper bots use a vector embeddings database that effective gives the model salient context. So this was satisfied before EOY 2023.
Can this do 20 percent of cognitive tasks? Eh maybe? Issue is that since it can’t do the other 80 percent and it can be fooled many ways gpt-4 can’t actually do something like sell cars or other complete tasks. A human has to be there to help the model and check it’s work etc.
If you broke every task that humans do at all into a list, especially if you scaled by frequency, gpt-4 probably can in fact do 20 percent. (Frequency scaling means that easy tasks like “find all the goods in the store on the shopping list” happen millions of times per day while improving the bleeding edge of math is something few humans are doing)
Holy shit I seen to have been correct about every single prediction.
A. Calculator. Yep, python interpreter and Wolfram B. Perception, yep, gpt-4v. Visualization, yep. Both gemini and gpt4 can do this decently. C. RL on programming. Yep, alpha code 2. D. RL on college. Yep, open sources models have been refined this way. E. Internet browsing, yep old news F. Salient context: announced as a feature for gpt-4, not actually available at scale I don’t think. Update: I was wrong about this. Tons of different GPT-4 wrapper bots use a vector embeddings database that effective gives the model salient context. So this was satisfied before EOY 2023.
Can this do 20 percent of cognitive tasks? Eh maybe? Issue is that since it can’t do the other 80 percent and it can be fooled many ways gpt-4 can’t actually do something like sell cars or other complete tasks. A human has to be there to help the model and check it’s work etc.
If you broke every task that humans do at all into a list, especially if you scaled by frequency, gpt-4 probably can in fact do 20 percent. (Frequency scaling means that easy tasks like “find all the goods in the store on the shopping list” happen millions of times per day while improving the bleeding edge of math is something few humans are doing)