Yep, I fully agree :-) I’ve already said that decision theory should prime over probability theory; examples like this are why.
Any probability theory is incomplete, though, because if there’s a Dutch book where the people paying and receiving are arguably different people, the Dutch books outcome shifts depending on how they value each other. So Sleeping Beauty who is an average utilitarian over her future copies will behave like SSA has the true probabilities (for selfish bets).
Yep, I fully agree :-) I’ve already said that decision theory should prime over probability theory; examples like this are why.
Any probability theory is incomplete, though, because if there’s a Dutch book where the people paying and receiving are arguably different people, the Dutch books outcome shifts depending on how they value each other. So Sleeping Beauty who is an average utilitarian over her future copies will behave like SSA has the true probabilities (for selfish bets).