most of the objections people raise to cryonics seem to be off enough that, even if those objections were solved, those particular people still wouldn’t sign up—that is, they feel some fundamental antipathy to the whole idea of cryonics, and unconsciously pick some rationalization that happens to sound reasonable to them to explain it.
I really would sign up for cryonics if I thought it was at all likely to work. Even at a 1 in 30 chance I’d take it. But there are so many ways for it to fail that I just don’t think the odds are good at all.
Interestingly, my own estimation of a 1 in 20 chance puts me right about in the middle of your estimates. Given that I based my estimate primarily to be the median of the estimates I’d gathered at the time I made it, I’m still a little surprised that it’s still that with your newer set of estimates.
I really would sign up for cryonics if I thought it was at all likely to work. Even at a 1 in 30 chance I’d take it. But there are so many ways for it to fail that I just don’t think the odds are good at all.
Interestingly, my own estimation of a 1 in 20 chance puts me right about in the middle of your estimates. Given that I based my estimate primarily to be the median of the estimates I’d gathered at the time I made it, I’m still a little surprised that it’s still that with your newer set of estimates.