Vacuum decay isn’t enough to get us to be here. Even if aliens appear lots, and all want vacuum decay, if we don’t, we can still expect millions of years before it hits. In a million years, a Dyson sphere can hold a huge number of humans. (Even more with mind uploading). Ergo us being this early is still a surprise.
What you need to make our position fairly typical is either descendants who run lots of ancestor sims, or others who sim us. Or us being utterly doomed to destroy ourselves. The only serious candidate for something this doomy is UFAI.
Vacuum decay isn’t enough to get us to be here. Even if aliens appear lots, and all want vacuum decay, if we don’t, we can still expect millions of years before it hits. In a million years, a Dyson sphere can hold a huge number of humans. (Even more with mind uploading). Ergo us being this early is still a surprise.
What you need to make our position fairly typical is either descendants who run lots of ancestor sims, or others who sim us. Or us being utterly doomed to destroy ourselves. The only serious candidate for something this doomy is UFAI.