You made statements that you know why the field is stuck. That both contains an assertion of the field being stuck and you knowing the explanation is due to diminishing returns. I made no claim that I know the answer to either of those questions.
#1 There is not a significant group of young capable researchers saying we are taking things in the wrong direction, but a smaller number of older ones.
If you think that theoretical physics is going in the wrong direction and are unlikely going to get to research in a way you think will make progress, there are good reasons for not being not making your PHD in theoretical physics. The strongest disbelievers filter themselves out.
But even among the people who are actually in the field, I don’t see a good reason why you would publically see signs.
You might ask PHD students: “If you wouldn’t need to seek grants and would get a lab with 5 million dollar per year, would you pursue the same research agendas as you are currently do or would you pursue research for which you wouldn’t get grants in the current academic environment?”
It might be interesting to ask that question for researchers in every field and see the responses, but unfortunately I don’t know of any source that asks such a question in a good way.
I followed Hinton et all before they became famous. I saw the paradigm thing play out in front of my eyes there.
It’s certainly possible for their to be fields where it can be obvious to outsiders that a particular paradigm changing approach will work, but that’s not necessary for there to be superior paradigms that could be persued.
You made statements that you know why the field is stuck. That both contains an assertion of the field being stuck and you knowing the explanation is due to diminishing returns. I made no claim that I know the answer to either of those questions.
If you think that theoretical physics is going in the wrong direction and are unlikely going to get to research in a way you think will make progress, there are good reasons for not being not making your PHD in theoretical physics. The strongest disbelievers filter themselves out.
But even among the people who are actually in the field, I don’t see a good reason why you would publically see signs.
You might ask PHD students: “If you wouldn’t need to seek grants and would get a lab with 5 million dollar per year, would you pursue the same research agendas as you are currently do or would you pursue research for which you wouldn’t get grants in the current academic environment?”
It might be interesting to ask that question for researchers in every field and see the responses, but unfortunately I don’t know of any source that asks such a question in a good way.
It’s certainly possible for their to be fields where it can be obvious to outsiders that a particular paradigm changing approach will work, but that’s not necessary for there to be superior paradigms that could be persued.