approximately no one seemed willing to defend the confident short timelines view in a public debate
Now that you mention it, I’m feeling pretty interested in trying to devil’s-advocate short timelines / red-team my most bullish-on-LLMs views. I think I grok the case for them pretty well; or, at least, there are some short-timelines cases that I think hang together well enough for me to be worried about them. Would you be up to it? Same format as with Abram.[1]
(Though I can see it ending up with me speculating about possible ways to advance capabilities in ways I wouldn’t want to make public. Hopefully at worst we’ll need to edit out a few paragraphs, though.)
I think I’m interested, though significantly less interested than in a defense from someone who actually holds the view. It sounds like you could maybe occupy some AGI-soon hypotheses well enough, so could be good. I’m super busy at the moment—maybe we can try in a month or two? Or if you like you could start the dialogue post thing, and then we can slow-cook it (like, a “correspondence game”)?
Now that you mention it, I’m feeling pretty interested in trying to devil’s-advocate short timelines / red-team my most bullish-on-LLMs views. I think I grok the case for them pretty well; or, at least, there are some short-timelines cases that I think hang together well enough for me to be worried about them. Would you be up to it? Same format as with Abram.[1]
(Though I can see it ending up with me speculating about possible ways to advance capabilities in ways I wouldn’t want to make public. Hopefully at worst we’ll need to edit out a few paragraphs, though.)
Dialogues still seem possible to create through here.
I think I’m interested, though significantly less interested than in a defense from someone who actually holds the view. It sounds like you could maybe occupy some AGI-soon hypotheses well enough, so could be good. I’m super busy at the moment—maybe we can try in a month or two? Or if you like you could start the dialogue post thing, and then we can slow-cook it (like, a “correspondence game”)?
Yeah, that sounds good. I’ll figure out my opening statement and do that within probably a couple days.