So, if I were to make you a bet that #1-and-#2 is true that you should rationally take if you believe that 99% estimate, it must be set up so that gjmgain*0.01>owengain*0.99...
So unless I’m making some embarrassing simple math mistake here, if I put up say $2000 (Canadian) for “gjmgain” (wish I had more to play with, but unpaid intern, no work visa here, etc), you should be willing to put up anything less than $20.20...
Ah! But what if rather than money you had to put up that you would read the entire Theory of Instruction and the entire Research on Direct Instruction?
We’d get it settled by a respected public figure. Someone like Eliezer obviously springs to mind in the context of LW.
And believe me, I thought of how me just offering the bet should update him above his current level. I’m just trying to get him to read books, obviously :P
That would (I’d have thought) take quite a lot more than CDN$20 worth of time. (Unless I were just skimming through it rather than reading it thoroughly enough to be any use.) Though I’d presumably expect some nonzero benefit from reading the book, at least in the “99%” scenario, and that would need factoring in.
Also, how would the bet actually get resolved? I mean, in the “1%” case you’re a Scientologist and willing to lie brazenly about the fact; conditional on that, other Scientologists are probably very unreliable too so I can’t just ask whatever gathering of Scientologists is closer to what you say is your physical location (note: actually I’m pretty sure Scientologists are very unreliable anyway); so how could I be sufficiently—well over 99% -- convinced?
That would (I’d have thought) take quite a lot more than CDN$20 worth of time. (Unless I were just skimming through it rather than reading it thoroughly enough to be any use.) Though I’d presumably expect some nonzero benefit from reading the book, at least in the “99%” scenario, and that would need factoring in.
I already thought of all that. You know I’m just trying to get you to read the books. :P
Obviously, we’d both have to give our bets (well, my money and your promise) to a respected public figure, someone like Eliezer being an obvious candidate in the context of LW, of course.
The other thing besides just trying to get you to read is that I’m annoyed that you still have such a ridiculously high estimate of me being involved in scientology as 1%. I think that from what you know of me now, and what I know of you, I should have a higher estimate of you being involved with the CoS :P
Considering that you didn’t even try to see if I was making a bluff by offering to bet me one cent against my $2000...
S=probability of scientology involvement
2000S<0.01(1-S)
2000S<0.01-0.01S
2000.01S<0.01
S<0.000004999
Again, assuming I didn’t make any embarrassingly simple math errors, that’s an over 99.9995% confidence that the ‘scientology-related’ hypothesis was wrong.
Not that this is factoring in the hassle for both of us of setting up the judging and so on, but still, right? :P
But “the hassle of setting up the judging and so on” makes something like two orders of magnitude difference to the probability estimate here. And why would I want to call your bluff in that way?
So, if I were to make you a bet that #1-and-#2 is true that you should rationally take if you believe that 99% estimate, it must be set up so that gjmgain*0.01>owengain*0.99...
So unless I’m making some embarrassing simple math mistake here, if I put up say $2000 (Canadian) for “gjmgain” (wish I had more to play with, but unpaid intern, no work visa here, etc), you should be willing to put up anything less than $20.20...
Ah! But what if rather than money you had to put up that you would read the entire Theory of Instruction and the entire Research on Direct Instruction?
If you seriously made such a bet, then gjm would probably update on that evidence and revise his 99% probability upwards.
[But as gjm says the bet is impractical anyway because it’s too hard to resolve]
We’d get it settled by a respected public figure. Someone like Eliezer obviously springs to mind in the context of LW.
And believe me, I thought of how me just offering the bet should update him above his current level. I’m just trying to get him to read books, obviously :P
That would (I’d have thought) take quite a lot more than CDN$20 worth of time. (Unless I were just skimming through it rather than reading it thoroughly enough to be any use.) Though I’d presumably expect some nonzero benefit from reading the book, at least in the “99%” scenario, and that would need factoring in.
Also, how would the bet actually get resolved? I mean, in the “1%” case you’re a Scientologist and willing to lie brazenly about the fact; conditional on that, other Scientologists are probably very unreliable too so I can’t just ask whatever gathering of Scientologists is closer to what you say is your physical location (note: actually I’m pretty sure Scientologists are very unreliable anyway); so how could I be sufficiently—well over 99% -- convinced?
I already thought of all that. You know I’m just trying to get you to read the books. :P
Obviously, we’d both have to give our bets (well, my money and your promise) to a respected public figure, someone like Eliezer being an obvious candidate in the context of LW, of course.
The other thing besides just trying to get you to read is that I’m annoyed that you still have such a ridiculously high estimate of me being involved in scientology as 1%. I think that from what you know of me now, and what I know of you, I should have a higher estimate of you being involved with the CoS :P
I did say that the 99% figure was very rough and I wouldn’t trust it much. But yeah, I’m probably mostly “privileging the hypothesis”.
Considering that you didn’t even try to see if I was making a bluff by offering to bet me one cent against my $2000...
S=probability of scientology involvement
2000S<0.01(1-S)
2000S<0.01-0.01S
2000.01S<0.01
S<0.000004999
Again, assuming I didn’t make any embarrassingly simple math errors, that’s an over 99.9995% confidence that the ‘scientology-related’ hypothesis was wrong.
Not that this is factoring in the hassle for both of us of setting up the judging and so on, but still, right? :P
But “the hassle of setting up the judging and so on” makes something like two orders of magnitude difference to the probability estimate here. And why would I want to call your bluff in that way?