We’d get it settled by a respected public figure. Someone like Eliezer obviously springs to mind in the context of LW.
And believe me, I thought of how me just offering the bet should update him above his current level. I’m just trying to get him to read books, obviously :P
If you seriously made such a bet, then gjm would probably update on that evidence and revise his 99% probability upwards.
[But as gjm says the bet is impractical anyway because it’s too hard to resolve]
We’d get it settled by a respected public figure. Someone like Eliezer obviously springs to mind in the context of LW.
And believe me, I thought of how me just offering the bet should update him above his current level. I’m just trying to get him to read books, obviously :P