This seems fine to me (you can see some reasons I like Epoch here). My understanding is that most Epoch staff are concerned about AI Risk, though tend to longer timelines and maybe lower p(doom) than many in the community, and they aren’t exactly trying to keep this secret.
Your argument rests on an implicit premise that Epoch talking about “AI is risky” in their podcast is important, eg because it’d change the mind of some listeners. This seems fairly unlikely to me—it seems like a very inside baseball podcast, mostly listened to by people already aware of AI risk arguments, and likely that Epoch is somewhat part of the AI risk-concerned community. And, generally, I don’t think that all media produced by AI risk concerned people needs to mention that AI risk is a big deal—that just seems annoying and preachy. I see Epoch’s impact story as informing people of where AI is likely to go and what’s likely to happen, and this works fine even if they don’t explicitly discuss AI risk
I don’t think that all media produced by AI risk concerned people needs to mention that AI risk is a big deal—that just seems annoying and preachy. I see Epoch’s impact story as informing people of where AI is likely to go and what’s likely to happen, and this works fine even if they don’t explicitly discuss AI risk
I don’t think that every podcast episode should mention AI risk, but it would be pretty weird in my eyes to never mention it. Listeners would understandably infer that “these well-informed people apparently don’t really worry much, maybe I shouldn’t worry much either”. I think rationalists easily underestimate how much other people’s beliefs depend on what the people around them & their authority figures believe.
I think they have a strong platform to discuss risks occasionally. It also simply feels part of “where AI is likely to go and what’s likely to happen”.
Listeners would understandably infer that “these well-informed people apparently don’t really worry much, maybe I shouldn’t worry much either”.
I think this is countered to a great extent by all the well-informed people who worry a lot about AI risk. I think the “well-informed people apparently disagree on this topic, I better look into it myself” environment promotes inquiry and is generally good for truth-seeking.
More generally, I agree with @Neel Nanda, it seems somewhat doubtful that people listening to a very niche Epoch Podcast aren’t aware of all the smart people worried about AI risk.
This seems fine to me (you can see some reasons I like Epoch here). My understanding is that most Epoch staff are concerned about AI Risk, though tend to longer timelines and maybe lower p(doom) than many in the community, and they aren’t exactly trying to keep this secret.
Your argument rests on an implicit premise that Epoch talking about “AI is risky” in their podcast is important, eg because it’d change the mind of some listeners. This seems fairly unlikely to me—it seems like a very inside baseball podcast, mostly listened to by people already aware of AI risk arguments, and likely that Epoch is somewhat part of the AI risk-concerned community. And, generally, I don’t think that all media produced by AI risk concerned people needs to mention that AI risk is a big deal—that just seems annoying and preachy. I see Epoch’s impact story as informing people of where AI is likely to go and what’s likely to happen, and this works fine even if they don’t explicitly discuss AI risk
I don’t think that every podcast episode should mention AI risk, but it would be pretty weird in my eyes to never mention it. Listeners would understandably infer that “these well-informed people apparently don’t really worry much, maybe I shouldn’t worry much either”. I think rationalists easily underestimate how much other people’s beliefs depend on what the people around them & their authority figures believe.
I think they have a strong platform to discuss risks occasionally. It also simply feels part of “where AI is likely to go and what’s likely to happen”.
I think this is countered to a great extent by all the well-informed people who worry a lot about AI risk. I think the “well-informed people apparently disagree on this topic, I better look into it myself” environment promotes inquiry and is generally good for truth-seeking.
More generally, I agree with @Neel Nanda, it seems somewhat doubtful that people listening to a very niche Epoch Podcast aren’t aware of all the smart people worried about AI risk.