My sense is that coordination for this is basically impossible, because of competing access needs. I am most optimistic about versions of this that will:
1) Happen even if no one else signs on. [For example, people moving to small towns within commuting distance of SF/Berkeley, where it makes sense for them even if no one else moves to Pinole or Moraga or wherever.] 2) Be readily extensible. [If one person buys in Pinole, other people can later buy other houses in Pinole, and slowly shift the balance. Many rationalist group houses started off as a single apartment in a split house, and slowly took over through organic growth. Building a neighborhood of small houses in upstate Vermont to replace your group house, if it works, probably also means someone else could build a subdivision for their group house next door.] 3) Pick a vision and be willing to deliver on it. [You’re not going to find a place that has great weather and cheap property value and proximity to great cities; that’s not how efficient markets work. Instead, figure out the few criteria that matter most to you, and do what it takes to achieve those criteria.]
This is basically the only way I see for projects to get out of the planning stage and into the reality stage; there will be Some Children Left Behind, and also some people who decide that, well, they do really like the sun but lumenators will be sufficient to make upstate Vermont workable (or whatever).
Separately, I note that ‘chance meetings among extraverts’ seem to be a pretty powerful factor in shaping the history of cultures and organizations, and think that there really is a very large benefit to being in a central hub; I think those hubs have to become much worse for it to not be worth it anymore. [The main compelling reason I see for moving away from the hub is in order to have children—suburbs exist for a reason!--but for people still trying to find partners or meaningful work, the hubs remain very important.]
You’re not going to find a place that has great weather and cheap property value and proximity to great cities; that’s not how efficient markets work.
That’s not entirely true—these are only three variables. Efficient markets says that everywhere will be on some pareto frontier, not on this particular pareto frontier. And given the extreme distortions in the Bay Area housing market, there’s a plausible argument that the area isn’t on any pareto frontier.
Sure, one could argue that Oakland actually fits the three desiderata, because I left out “low crime,” altho I don’t think Oakland is actually cheap. The broader point of “you get what you pay for” holds, I think, and the only way you get something ‘acceptably cheap’ is deliberately deciding to not pay for some things you could pay for.
“You get what you pay for” isn’t really the rule. The rule is more like: in order to get it, you must pay for it. But the converse does not hold: just because you pay for it, does not mean you get it.
In the Bay Area case specifically: there’s a lot of people in the Bay Area with very high-paying jobs, who would not make nearly as much money living elsewhere. In order to get those high-paying jobs, they have to shell out for expensive Bay Area living costs. (In order to get “it”—i.e. the high-paying job—they must pay for it.) This was certainly the main reason I lived there for many years. But paying those high Bay Area living costs will not magically cause one to make lots of money. (Just because you pay for it, does not mean you get it.)
In terms of pareto frontiers: the Bay Area is on the “software engineer salary” pareto frontier, but that has very little value to people who do not currently work in software. (Going by the numbers from this survey, I’d guess that about half the LW community is in the software industry. The other half can probably make about as much money elsewhere, at much lower living cost.)
My sense is that coordination for this is basically impossible, because of competing access needs. I am most optimistic about versions of this that will:
1) Happen even if no one else signs on. [For example, people moving to small towns within commuting distance of SF/Berkeley, where it makes sense for them even if no one else moves to Pinole or Moraga or wherever.]
2) Be readily extensible. [If one person buys in Pinole, other people can later buy other houses in Pinole, and slowly shift the balance. Many rationalist group houses started off as a single apartment in a split house, and slowly took over through organic growth. Building a neighborhood of small houses in upstate Vermont to replace your group house, if it works, probably also means someone else could build a subdivision for their group house next door.]
3) Pick a vision and be willing to deliver on it. [You’re not going to find a place that has great weather and cheap property value and proximity to great cities; that’s not how efficient markets work. Instead, figure out the few criteria that matter most to you, and do what it takes to achieve those criteria.]
This is basically the only way I see for projects to get out of the planning stage and into the reality stage; there will be Some Children Left Behind, and also some people who decide that, well, they do really like the sun but lumenators will be sufficient to make upstate Vermont workable (or whatever).
Separately, I note that ‘chance meetings among extraverts’ seem to be a pretty powerful factor in shaping the history of cultures and organizations, and think that there really is a very large benefit to being in a central hub; I think those hubs have to become much worse for it to not be worth it anymore. [The main compelling reason I see for moving away from the hub is in order to have children—suburbs exist for a reason!--but for people still trying to find partners or meaningful work, the hubs remain very important.]
That’s not entirely true—these are only three variables. Efficient markets says that everywhere will be on some pareto frontier, not on this particular pareto frontier. And given the extreme distortions in the Bay Area housing market, there’s a plausible argument that the area isn’t on any pareto frontier.
Sure, one could argue that Oakland actually fits the three desiderata, because I left out “low crime,” altho I don’t think Oakland is actually cheap. The broader point of “you get what you pay for” holds, I think, and the only way you get something ‘acceptably cheap’ is deliberately deciding to not pay for some things you could pay for.
“You get what you pay for” isn’t really the rule. The rule is more like: in order to get it, you must pay for it. But the converse does not hold: just because you pay for it, does not mean you get it.
In the Bay Area case specifically: there’s a lot of people in the Bay Area with very high-paying jobs, who would not make nearly as much money living elsewhere. In order to get those high-paying jobs, they have to shell out for expensive Bay Area living costs. (In order to get “it”—i.e. the high-paying job—they must pay for it.) This was certainly the main reason I lived there for many years. But paying those high Bay Area living costs will not magically cause one to make lots of money. (Just because you pay for it, does not mean you get it.)
In terms of pareto frontiers: the Bay Area is on the “software engineer salary” pareto frontier, but that has very little value to people who do not currently work in software. (Going by the numbers from this survey, I’d guess that about half the LW community is in the software industry. The other half can probably make about as much money elsewhere, at much lower living cost.)