I agree with the game-theoretic principle here, which I assume is the part of relevance to LessWrong, but in the interest of mandatory token disagreement: the stated expectations of voters are probably an extremely bad guide to the actual expectations of policymakers, and when either party does achieve a trifecta they very swiftly moderate what has been portrayed as their “full agenda.” Barring extreme external events Ryan-style budget cuts aren’t going to happen.
when either party does achieve a trifecta they very swiftly moderate what has been portrayed as their “full agenda.”
In US national politics, I suspect that the least secure incumbents in Congress are also those that are closest to the “center” between the two parties, and that when they’re replaced, they’re often replaced by similar “centrists”, so the median ideological position of the parties doesn’t change much.
I also imagine that under parliamentary systems in which people vote for parties rather than individuals, this isn’t the case.
I agree with the game-theoretic principle here, which I assume is the part of relevance to LessWrong, but in the interest of mandatory token disagreement: the stated expectations of voters are probably an extremely bad guide to the actual expectations of policymakers, and when either party does achieve a trifecta they very swiftly moderate what has been portrayed as their “full agenda.” Barring extreme external events Ryan-style budget cuts aren’t going to happen.
In US national politics, I suspect that the least secure incumbents in Congress are also those that are closest to the “center” between the two parties, and that when they’re replaced, they’re often replaced by similar “centrists”, so the median ideological position of the parties doesn’t change much.
I also imagine that under parliamentary systems in which people vote for parties rather than individuals, this isn’t the case.
Not to mention the fact that they’d need to be able to override cloture in order to achieve the sort of “swift enactments” being discussed.