Why don’t EA/rationalist firms use prediction markets for deciding who to hire (futarchy style)? Your application to a company would be something like ticking a box that says, “I give you permission to create a prediction market on me that I won’t trade in.” The statement the market would be trading could be P(we won’t regret hiring X | we hire X) or P(X will meet the following KPIs | we hire X), where X is the candidate. Effectively, this would outsource the work of hiring to people who want to profit on the market.
You could also make candidates do some set of tests or competitions and show that information to traders (as well as resume and other standard info). Then you pick the top trading candidates you want (or several above some threshold). This would also give more opportunity to some candidate X to publicly do things they believe will convince traders to increase their market’s price. It would be really cool if the mechanism actually deciding hiring decisions had the capacity to look at everything a candidate was willing to do/show to get hired, vs the current model of very restricted time commitment per candidate.
I suspect the blocker to this is that the trading volume would just be too low to give meaningful information.
Mostly because it doesn’t work? Because the analogies you’re assuming between big stocks and small decisions don’t apply? Big stocks have billions of dollars traded and reporting/auditing requirements backed by courts and banks and governments. Try drawing a line from how Dow stocks behave to how penny stocks behave, and then extrapolate way past there.
Why don’t EA/rationalist firms use prediction markets for deciding who to hire (futarchy style)? Your application to a company would be something like ticking a box that says, “I give you permission to create a prediction market on me that I won’t trade in.” The statement the market would be trading could be P(we won’t regret hiring X | we hire X) or P(X will meet the following KPIs | we hire X), where X is the candidate. Effectively, this would outsource the work of hiring to people who want to profit on the market.
You could also make candidates do some set of tests or competitions and show that information to traders (as well as resume and other standard info). Then you pick the top trading candidates you want (or several above some threshold). This would also give more opportunity to some candidate X to publicly do things they believe will convince traders to increase their market’s price. It would be really cool if the mechanism actually deciding hiring decisions had the capacity to look at everything a candidate was willing to do/show to get hired, vs the current model of very restricted time commitment per candidate.
I suspect the blocker to this is that the trading volume would just be too low to give meaningful information.
Mostly because it doesn’t work? Because the analogies you’re assuming between big stocks and small decisions don’t apply? Big stocks have billions of dollars traded and reporting/auditing requirements backed by courts and banks and governments. Try drawing a line from how Dow stocks behave to how penny stocks behave, and then extrapolate way past there.