If you take a weighted sum of (75% likely 60mph forward) + (25% likely 60 mph backward), you get (30 mph forward).
Stopping briefly to choose a plan might’ve been sensible, if it was easier to think while holding still; stopping after that (I had no GPS or navigation ability) wouldn’t’ve helped; I had to proceed in some direction to find out where the hotel was, and there was no point in doing that not at full speed.
Often a person should hedge bets in some fashion, or should take some action under uncertainty that is different from the action one would take if one were certain of model 1 or of model 2. The point is that “hedging” or “acting under uncertainty” in this way is different in many particulars from the sort of “kind of working” that people often end up accidentally doing, from a naiver sort of average. Often it e.g. involves running info-gathering tests at full speed, one after another. Or e.g., betting “blue” each time in this experiment, while also attempting to form better models.
If you take a weighted sum of (75% likely 60mph forward) + (25% likely 60 mph backward), you get (30 mph forward).
Stopping briefly to choose a plan might’ve been sensible, if it was easier to think while holding still; stopping after that (I had no GPS or navigation ability) wouldn’t’ve helped; I had to proceed in some direction to find out where the hotel was, and there was no point in doing that not at full speed.
Often a person should hedge bets in some fashion, or should take some action under uncertainty that is different from the action one would take if one were certain of model 1 or of model 2. The point is that “hedging” or “acting under uncertainty” in this way is different in many particulars from the sort of “kind of working” that people often end up accidentally doing, from a naiver sort of average. Often it e.g. involves running info-gathering tests at full speed, one after another. Or e.g., betting “blue” each time in this experiment, while also attempting to form better models.