I think a success story of the right prediction is a good point. But it is not sufficient in the long run. For a decision to trust some source of predictions we need more information than one success.
As far as I can see, Metaculus track record on geopolitics is looking good, but it contains relatively few points.
And for governments we don’t see their track records. But I think it will not be hard to find wrong predictions from governments in the past.
I think a success story of the right prediction is a good point. But it is not sufficient in the long run. For a decision to trust some source of predictions we need more information than one success.
As far as I can see, Metaculus track record on geopolitics is looking good, but it contains relatively few points.
And for governments we don’t see their track records. But I think it will not be hard to find wrong predictions from governments in the past.