You might look at Hal Varian’s takes. They do seem similar to what the exchange between Patel and Cowen were touching on. There was also some discussion here, or at least linked here, that I don’t have a ready reference for (sorry) about rate of adoption of the existing (as of maybe 9 months to a year back) models in corporations. The bottle necks were not really model ability or powers but fitting them into the existing production and supply chains.
If we see some rouge model that goes out and takes over the production at some of the big, highly automated factories, and probably down stream for the needed inputs (much less likely I suspect as a lot of those are relatively small, non-automated production processes but human dependent) that starts making everything faster and cheaper (or making things it wants and causes some type or retooling and different output) I don’t think the rapid transformation by AI will occur. When does that happen? I’m sure others are better suited to estimate but my guess is more like 30 years than 5 years.
You might look at Hal Varian’s takes. They do seem similar to what the exchange between Patel and Cowen were touching on. There was also some discussion here, or at least linked here, that I don’t have a ready reference for (sorry) about rate of adoption of the existing (as of maybe 9 months to a year back) models in corporations. The bottle necks were not really model ability or powers but fitting them into the existing production and supply chains.
If we see some rouge model that goes out and takes over the production at some of the big, highly automated factories, and probably down stream for the needed inputs (much less likely I suspect as a lot of those are relatively small, non-automated production processes but human dependent) that starts making everything faster and cheaper (or making things it wants and causes some type or retooling and different output) I don’t think the rapid transformation by AI will occur. When does that happen? I’m sure others are better suited to estimate but my guess is more like 30 years than 5 years.