Hm — what are the “plausible interventions” that would stop China from having >25% probability of takeover if no other country could build powerful AI? Seems like you either need to count a delay as successful prevention, or you need to have a pretty low bar for “plausible”, because it seems extremely difficult/costly to prevent China from developing powerful AI in the long run. (Where they can develop their own supply chains, put manufacturing and data centers underground, etc.)
Hm — what are the “plausible interventions” that would stop China from having >25% probability of takeover if no other country could build powerful AI? Seems like you either need to count a delay as successful prevention, or you need to have a pretty low bar for “plausible”, because it seems extremely difficult/costly to prevent China from developing powerful AI in the long run. (Where they can develop their own supply chains, put manufacturing and data centers underground, etc.)
Yeah, I’m trying to include delay as fine.
I’m just trying to point at “the point when aggressive intervention by a bunch of parties is potentially still too late”.