I think, by the time any kind of international deal goes through, we will basically have already reached the frontier of what was safe, so it feels like splitting hairs, discussing whether the regime should want more capabilities in the immediate future.
(surely it’s going to take at least a year, which is a pretty long time, it’s probably not going to happen at all, and 3 years to even get started is more like what I imagine when I imagine a very successful overton-smashing campaign)
I think there’s tons of research augmentation you can do 1-3-year-from-now AI, that are more about leveraging the existing capabilities than getting fundamentally smarter
I don’t buy that there’s a way to get end-to-end research, or “fundamentally smarter” research assistants, that aren’t unacceptably dangerous at scale. (i.e. I believe you can train on more specific ). (man I have no idea what I meant by that sentence fragment. sorry, person who reacted with ”?”)
Do those feel like subcruxes for you, or are there other ones?
Subcruxes of mine here:
I think, by the time any kind of international deal goes through, we will basically have already reached the frontier of what was safe, so it feels like splitting hairs, discussing whether the regime should want more capabilities in the immediate future.
(surely it’s going to take at least a year, which is a pretty long time, it’s probably not going to happen at all, and 3 years to even get started is more like what I imagine when I imagine a very successful overton-smashing campaign)
I think there’s tons of research augmentation you can do 1-3-year-from-now AI, that are more about leveraging the existing capabilities than getting fundamentally smarter
I don’t buy that there’s a way to get end-to-end research, or “fundamentally smarter” research assistants, that aren’t unacceptably dangerous at scale.
(i.e. I believe you can train on more specific ).(man I have no idea what I meant by that sentence fragment. sorry, person who reacted with ”?”)Do those feel like subcruxes for you, or are there other ones?