I’m not convinced that the absentminded driver problem has such implications. Its straightforward (to me) resolution is that the optimal p is 2⁄3 by the obvious analysis, and that the driver cannot use alpha as a probability, for reasons set out here.
But I’d rather not get into a discussion of self-referential decision theory, since it doesn’t currently exist.
Calculating the locally optimal action without any reference to plans can sometimes get you different results—see the absentminded driver problem.
I’m not convinced that the absentminded driver problem has such implications. Its straightforward (to me) resolution is that the optimal p is 2⁄3 by the obvious analysis, and that the driver cannot use alpha as a probability, for reasons set out here.
But I’d rather not get into a discussion of self-referential decision theory, since it doesn’t currently exist.