I’m not convinced that the absentminded driver problem has such implications. Its straightforward (to me) resolution is that the optimal p is 2⁄3 by the obvious analysis, and that the driver cannot use alpha as a probability, for reasons set out here.
But I’d rather not get into a discussion of self-referential decision theory, since it doesn’t currently exist.
I’m not convinced that the absentminded driver problem has such implications. Its straightforward (to me) resolution is that the optimal p is 2⁄3 by the obvious analysis, and that the driver cannot use alpha as a probability, for reasons set out here.
But I’d rather not get into a discussion of self-referential decision theory, since it doesn’t currently exist.