Right, definitely not “the only way”. Still I think most counterfactuals are implicit, not explicit, probability distributions. Sort of like when you shoot a hoop, your mind solves rather complicated differential equations implicitly, not explicitly.
The probability distribution is usually non-existent in the mind.
I don’t know if they are represented in the mind somewhere implicitly, but my guess would be that yes, somewhere in your brain there is a collection of experiences that get converted into “priors”, for example. If 90% of your relevant experiences say that “this proposition is true” and 10% say that “this proposition is false”, you end up with a prior credence of 90% seemingly pulled out of thin air.
Right, definitely not “the only way”. Still I think most counterfactuals are implicit, not explicit, probability distributions. Sort of like when you shoot a hoop, your mind solves rather complicated differential equations implicitly, not explicitly.
I don’t know if they are represented in the mind somewhere implicitly, but my guess would be that yes, somewhere in your brain there is a collection of experiences that get converted into “priors”, for example. If 90% of your relevant experiences say that “this proposition is true” and 10% say that “this proposition is false”, you end up with a prior credence of 90% seemingly pulled out of thin air.