Interesting read—certainly could be true, though I’m waiting for a few more datapoints on the line. The 50% plot doesn’t have the same kind of clear slowdown; I’ll be more comfortable calling the trend once the February models and the generation after them have estimates.
People are going crazy today about the Opus 4.6 time horizon. But if you look at the 80% plot it actually does pretty much lie on the straight line through o3 and GPT-5.2.
Interesting read—certainly could be true, though I’m waiting for a few more datapoints on the line. The 50% plot doesn’t have the same kind of clear slowdown; I’ll be more comfortable calling the trend once the February models and the generation after them have estimates.
People are going crazy today about the Opus 4.6 time horizon. But if you look at the 80% plot it actually does pretty much lie on the straight line through o3 and GPT-5.2.