I believe it’s vastly more efficient to focus on FAI (or WBE institutions) and protected Earth-based shelters than space colonization.
It’s unrealistically difficult to create in the near future a self-sustaining (and quarantined!) colony that can seed civilization after a disaster that takes down even Earth-based shelters. Development of more efficient space transit doesn’t even seem an important subproblem of that. By the time it’s done, with however much effort one can realistically expect, only a small fraction of remaining non-uFAI risk will remain unrealized, and Earth-based shelters could be made more resilient in the meantime, faster and cheaper.
By the time it’s done, with however much effort one can realistically expect, only a small fraction of remaining non-uFAI risk will remain unrealized, and Earth-based shelters could be made more resilient in the meantime, faster and cheaper.
So, this claim depends upon two subclaims.
(1) The probability distribution of time-to-colony
(2) The probability distribution of time-to-non-AI-risk
Can you post your probability distributions for these two events in separate comments, so that I can agree or disagree with each separately?
protected Earth-based shelters than space colonization.
Additionally I think that a rational person should have some survivalist skills in their arsenal to improve their/family/community chances in a major local or “small” earth-scale disruption.
I think building earth-based shelters is a good idea in general, but will run into huge psychological walls because there will not be enough shelter for everybody.
One advantage of the space strategy is skirting these issues, since space programs are not ostensibly survivalist-oriented.
I believe it’s vastly more efficient to focus on FAI (or WBE institutions) and protected Earth-based shelters than space colonization.
It’s unrealistically difficult to create in the near future a self-sustaining (and quarantined!) colony that can seed civilization after a disaster that takes down even Earth-based shelters. Development of more efficient space transit doesn’t even seem an important subproblem of that. By the time it’s done, with however much effort one can realistically expect, only a small fraction of remaining non-uFAI risk will remain unrealized, and Earth-based shelters could be made more resilient in the meantime, faster and cheaper.
So, this claim depends upon two subclaims.
(1) The probability distribution of time-to-colony (2) The probability distribution of time-to-non-AI-risk
Can you post your probability distributions for these two events in separate comments, so that I can agree or disagree with each separately?
Additionally I think that a rational person should have some survivalist skills in their arsenal to improve their/family/community chances in a major local or “small” earth-scale disruption.
I think building earth-based shelters is a good idea in general, but will run into huge psychological walls because there will not be enough shelter for everybody.
One advantage of the space strategy is skirting these issues, since space programs are not ostensibly survivalist-oriented.